Table 5. The top ten most important predictor variables for predicting dengue cases in the national models, ordered from the largest to the smallest %IncMSEs.
| Rank | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-week-ahead | Denguek (26.35%) | Denguek-1 (17.97%) | Denguek-2 (12.61%) | Denguek-3 (10.36%) | Week (8.78%) | Denguek-4 (7.83%) | EVIk-11 (6.43%) | Temperaturek-11 (6.39%) | EVIk-10 (6.07%) | EVIk-8 (6.05%) |
| 2-week-ahead | Denguek (25.72%) | Denguek-1 (17.13%) | Week (12.33%) | Denguek-2 (12.30%) | Denguek-3 (9.73%) | Temperaturek-11 (8.87%) | Denguek-4 (8.82%) | EVIk-7 (8.42%) | EVIk-5 (8.06%) | EVIk-8 (7.41%) |
| 3-week-ahead | Denguek (27.16%) | Denguek-1 (17.54%) | Week (14.57%) | Denguek-2 (12.91%) | EVIk-8 (9.67%) | EVIk-10 (8.52%) | Temperaturek-10 (8.49%) | Education (8.40%) | Denguek-3 (7.48%) | Denguek-4 (7.40%) |
| 4-week-ahead | Denguek (27.24%) | Week (17.94%) | Denguek-1 (15.10%) | Education(12.97%) | Denguek-2 (11.28%) | Temperaturek-9 (10.03%) | EVIk-8 (9.68%) | Temperaturek-11 (8.67%) | EVIk-7 (8.37%) | Denguek-3 (7.86%) |
| 5-week-ahead | Denguek (25.39%) | Week (18.86%) | Denguek-1 (18.73%) | Education(12.99%) | Denguek-2 (12.39%) | EVIk-10 (11.42%) | Temperaturek-8 (11.15%) | Temperaturek (11.31%) | Gini (10.33%) | EVIk-9 (9.82%) |
| 6-week-ahead | Denguek (24.88%) | Week (20.14%) | Denguek-1 (17.68%) | Education(17.13%) | Population(12.38%) | Year (11.83%) | Denguek-2 (11.54%) | EVIk-8 (11.52%) | EVIk-9 (11.24%) | EVIk-1 (11.15%) |
| 7-week-ahead | Denguek (25.61%) | Week (19.71%) | Education(17.66%) | Denguek-1 (17.49%) | Year (15.64%) | Denguek-2 (14.45%) | Population (12.49%) | Gini (11.69%) | EVIk-10 (11.55%) | EVIk-9 (11.06%) |
| 8-week-ahead | Denguek (25.68%) | Week (21.49%) | Population(20.67%) | Education(19.16%) | Denguek-1 (16.84%) | Year (16.06%) | Temperaturek-11 (12.99%) | Temperaturek-5 (12.11%) | Denguek-2 (11.66%) | Gini (11.63%) |
| 9-week-ahead | Denguek (24.11%) | Week (22.15%) | Population(21.56%) | Education(20.47%) | Year (17.70%) | Denguek-1 (17.44%) | Temperaturek-11 (12.94%) | Denguek-11 (12.05%) | Gini (11.89%) | Temperaturek-3 (11.15%) |
| 10-week-ahead | Denguek (23.42%) | Week (23.03%) | Year (21.45%) | Education(20.38) | Population(19.80%) | Denguek-1 (17.22%) | Gini (14.88%) | Denguek-11 (13.02%) | Temperaturek-4 (12.95%) | Denguek-2 (10.60%) |
| 11-week-ahead | Year (22.94%) | Week (21.73%) | Denguek (21.37%) | Population(18.61%) | Education (17.20%) | Gini (16.98%) | Denguek-1 (16.56%) | Temperaturek-11 (15.48%) | Denguek-10 (13.47%) | Temperaturek-4 (11.80%) |
| 12-week-ahead | Population (26.76%) | Year (24.86%) | Denguek (22.50%) | Week (22.45%) | Education(17.12%) | Gini (17.72%) | Denguek-11 (16.71%) | Denguek-1 (16.67%) | Denguek-10 (14.06%) | Temperaturek-10 (13.07%) |
Dengue indicates historical dengue cases and EVI denotes enhanced vegetation index. %IncMSE: percentage of increased mean squared error.