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. 2020 Oct 6;11:5012. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18783-0

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — The identified patterns of outbound travel from Wuhan: (a) the daily total outbound travel from Wuhan in 2019 and 2020; (b) timing of first case detection stratified by clusters of similar time series; (c) distribution of resident population sizes of individual prefectures (points); (d) map of prefectures and province-level cities showing the spatial distribution of timeseries clusters; (e) outbound travel trends from Wuhan to the most connected prefectures in China, stratified by clusters with similar time series. The clusters are defined by k-means clustering of the timeseries of outbound travel volume (see “Methods” section). For clusters in panels b and c, n = 22 (Cluster A), 34 (Cluster B) 33 (Cluster C), 36 (Cluster D). Boxplots in panels b and c display Median, IQR, and whiskers +/− 1.5 times IQR. The timeseries have been normalised by the total flow of each, to allow comparison of the profile. Inset pie charts show the total travel flux out of Wuhan prefecture by destinations in each cluster. The red dashed lines in panels a, b and e mark the beginning of LNY holidays. The colours in panels b, c, d and e indicate cluster membership (Cluster A, B, C or D).