Table 1.
Model estimates of NAFLD burden—Australia, 2015–2030
| Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | |
| Country population | 23 816 000 | 25 710 000 | 27 794 000 | 29 747 000 |
| Prevalent cases | ||||
| NAFLD cases | 4 915 000 (4 220 000–5 605 000) | 5 710 000 (4 879 000–6 483 000) | 6 424 000 (5 387 000–7 253 000) | 7 026 000 (5 842 000–7 890 000) |
| NAFLD prevalence rate (all ages) | 20.6% (17.7–23.5%) | 22.2% (19.0–25.2%) | 23.1% (19.4–26.1%) | 23.6% (19.6–26.5%) |
| F0 | 4 211 000 (3 541 000–4 840 000) | 4 818 000 (4 009 000–5 515 000) | 5 337 000 (4 334 000–6 087 000) | 5 741 000 (4 557 000–6 581 000) |
| F1 | 360 000 (244 000–509 000) | 438 000 (295 000–619 000) | 513 000 (344 000–724 000) | 582 000 (389 000–812 000) |
| F2 | 186 000 (116 000–282 000) | 238 000 (149 000–361 000) | 293 000 (184 000–443 000) | 347 000 (218 000–524 000) |
| F3 | 105 000 (62 000–153 000) | 140 000 (83 600–204 000) | 180 000 (108 000–261 000) | 223 000 (134 000–322 000) |
| Compensated cirrhosis | 47 900 (28 600–80 200) | 67 000 (39 900–111 000) | 89 400 (53 200–148 000) | 115 000 (68 700–190 000) |
| Decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, and liver transplant | 6400 (4100–11 000) | 9100 (6000–15 500) | 12 200 (8300–20 100) | 16 000 (11 000–25 700) |
| NASH cases | 1 119 000 (886 000–1 380 000) | 1 366 000 (1 078 000–1 681 000) | 1 612 000 (1 264 000–1 974 000) | 1 848 000 (1 439 000–2 256 000) |
| NASH prevalence rate (all ages) | 4.7% (3.7–5.8%) | 5.3% (4.2–6.5%) | 5.8% (4.5–7.1%) | 6.2% (4.8–7.6%) |
| Incident cases | ||||
| Decompensated cirrhosis | 1600 (920–2900) | 2300 (1300–4000) | 3000 (1800–5400) | 3900 (2300–6900) |
| HCC | 330 (220–520) | 440 (300–700) | 580 (380–910) | 730 (480–1100) |
| Liver death | 1300 (760–2300) | 1800 (1100–3200) | 2500 (1500–4400) | 3200 (1900–5700) |
HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; NAFLD, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease; NASH, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.