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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Oct 1.
Published in final edited form as: Am J Gastroenterol. 2020 Oct;115(10):1642–1649. doi: 10.14309/ajg.0000000000000715

Table 1.

Model Input Parameters

Input Variable Value Range References
Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence
Incidence in compensated cirrhosis (yearly) 2% 1%–3% (22, 3638)
Incidence in decompensated cirrhosis (yearly) 4% 2%–6% (22, 3638)
Screening effectiveness and Diagnostics
Sensitivity of ultrasound alone for > early stage HCC 84% 76%–92% (21)
Sensitivity of ultrasound alone for early stage HCC 45% 30%–62% (21)
Specificity of ultrasound alone 91% 86%–94% (21)
Sensitivity of US with AFP for > early stage HCC 97% 91%–99% (21)
Sensitivity of US with AFP for early HCC 63% 48%–75% (21)
Specificity of US with AFP 84% 77%–89% (21)
Ultrasound leads to CT/MRI due to false positive 12% 8%–16% (13, 14)
AFP leads to CT/MRI because of a false positive 8% 5%–11% (13, 14)
Number of CT/MRI completed prior to diagnosis of HCC 1.5 1–3 (13, 14)
Number of CT/MRI completed without diagnosis of HCC for false positive AFP 1.2 1.0–1.5 (14)
Number of CT/MRI completed without diagnosis of HCC for false positive US 2.5 2–4 (13, 14)
Proportion of patients biopsied 0.3% 0.1%–0.5% (13, 14)
Biopsy bleeding or biliary injury 0.6% 0.3%–0.9% (14)
Death from biopsy 0.08% 0.04%–.10% (14)
Biopsy false negative 30% 22%–36% (14)
Disease Progression
Decompensated cirrhosis to palliative care (annually) 4% 2%–10% (39)
Advanced HCC to palliative care (annually) 70% 60%–80% (40)
Early stage HCC to intermediate stage HCC (no treatment; annual) 5% 3%–9% (41)
Intermediate stage HCC to advanced stage HCC (no treatment; annual) 15% 12%–18% (42)
Transplant
Liver transplant for HCC (probability at 6 months) 14.1% 10%–18% (43)
Liver transplant for HCC (probability at 12 months) 60% 20%–80% (43)
Liver transplant for HCC (probability at 24 months) 90.6% 75%–100% (43)
Liver transplant wait time 4.2 months 1.6–7.7 months (44)
Costs (2018 US Dollars)
Abdominal US $142.35 133.31–194.52 (45)
AFP $18.64 $16.32–$20.71 (46)
MRI Abdomen with and without contrast $498.78 $441.32–$648.29 (45)
CT Abdomen with and without contrast $273.54 $236.67–$346.40 (45)
Liver Biopsy $1,034.87 $846.05–$1223.70 (45)
Liver biopsy complications $5,449 $1,385–$35,273 (47)
Liver transplant (first year) $354,672 $283,543–$364,672 (45, 48)
Liver transplant (after first year) $49,906 $44,814–$54,447 (45, 48)
HCC early stage costs (annual) $64,798 $35,512–$131,951 (49)
HCC intermediate stage costs (annual) $93,522 $42,091–$168,287 (49)
HCC advanced stage costs (annual) $84,405 $36,480–$115,797 (49)
Compensated cirrhosis costs (annual) $26,024 $5,157–$312,287 (50)
Decompensated cirrhosis costs (annual) $68,604 $13,810–$823,248 (50)
Palliative care costs (daily) $193 $151–$744 (51)
Utilities
HCC early stage 0.72 0.62–0.82 (52)
HCC intermediate stage 0.69 0.62–0.78 (53), (52)
HCC advanced stage 0.65 0.52–0.78 (53), (52)
Compensated cirrhosis 0.78 0.71–0.89 (53), (52)
Decompensated cirrhosis 0.60 0.46–0.71 (53), (52)
Decompensated cirrhosis and HCC 0.57 0.46–0.68 (53), (52)
Post-Liver transplant (year 1) 0.69 0.55–0.78 (54)
Post-Liver transplant (subsequent years) 0.79 0.62–0.91 (54)
Palliative Care 0.40 0.37–0.42 (55)