Table 3.

Clinical and Resource Utilization Outcomes for a Model of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Infection and Testing in Massachusetts

Scenario	PCR Tests per Simulation, d, Mean	PCR Tests, Total	Hospital Bed-days		ICU Bed-days		Cumulative Self-isolation Days
			Cumulative	Peak	Cumulative	Peak
Slowing scenario (1 June 2020, Re = 0.9)
Hospitalized	2900	521  800	126  300	2200	76  600	1000	…
Symptomatic	4800	861  500	91  200	2200	55  500	900	1  731  000
Symptomatic + asymptomatic once	35 100	6  318  200	87  100	2200	51  600	900	1  948  900
Symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly	192 200	34  593 900	77  300	2200	45  600	900	2  251  900
Intermediate scenario (1 June 2020, Re = 1.3)
Hospitalized	2900	530  400	257  500	2200	149  100	1000	…
Symptomatic	5900	1  053  100	133  100	2200	80  700	900	2  802  000
Symptomatic + asymptomatic once	36  300	6  534  100	123  200	2200	70  800	900	2  897  300
Symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly	193  500	34  823 700	93  400	2200	56  300	900	2  942  600
Surging scenario (1 June 2020, Re = 2.0)
Hospitalized	3100	549  300	639  800	7100	377  300	4100	…
Symptomatic	13  900	2  498  800	469  200	4600	264  600	2500	10  974 100
Symptomatic + asymptomatic once	46  800	8  418  900	442  900	4300	250  600	2500	11  326 700
Symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly	209  300	37  672 900	265  700	2300	144  600	1200	10  694 400

Includes events occurring during the 180-day horizon between simulated days 1 May 2020 and 1 November 2020. Strategies are listed by increasing number of tests utilized. PCR tests, hospital bed-days, ICU bed-days, and self-isolation days are rounded to the nearest 100. In-text results describing percentages are calculated from unrounded results. Cumulative self-isolation days are estimated in addition to the hospitalized strategy.

Abbreviations: ICU, intensive care unit; PCR, polymerase chain reaction; R_e, effective reproduction number.