Table 2.

Estimates of infections and healthcare demand aggregated over Sweden for the period 24 February to 1 September 2020, assuming intensive care capacity in Sweden increases by 100%, i.e. 1052 ICU beds in Sweden available for COVID-19 patients

Mitigation and suppression actions	Total number of individuals infected	Person days in in-patient care	Person days in the ICU	Total number of deaths assuming all ICU demands are satisfied	Total number of deaths from ICU shortage
(a) No public health interventions (counterfactual scenario)	10 093 341	993 119	347 315	41 104	28 906
(b) Modest physical distancing in ages 0–59 years, moderate in ages 60+ years	9 661 307	938 429	324 881	43 213	25 424
(c) Modest physical distancing in ages 0–59 years, moderately strong in ages 60+ years	9 273 896	866 471	290 496	38 889	21 451
(d) Moderate physical distancing in ages 0–59 years, very strong in ages 60–79 years, and strong in ages 80+ years, and improved isolation of infectious individuals	2 477 887	171 266	41 231	8477	0
(e) Moderate physical distancing in ages 0–59 years, strong in ages 60+ years, and further improved isolation of infectious individuals	1 706 342	126 854	34 445	4912	0