Table 2.

Predictive performance of the models studied.

Predictor		MSE	MAE	RPS	Improved AUC	Declined AUC
Biomarker	Timing
IL-6:IL-10	Slope over study	0.20	0.20	0.15	0.981	0.958
IL-6:IL-10	D4 - D0	0.35	0.30	0.23	0.927	0.928
IL-6	Slope over study	0.45	0.35	0.26	0.877	0.888
IL-6	D4 - D0	0.78	0.50	0.39	0.801	0.829
IL-6:IL-10	D2 - D0	0.83	0.53	0.38	0.827	0.866
IL-6	D2 - D0	1.33	0.78	0.45	0.731	0.746
IL-6	Admission (D0)	1.53	0.88	0.46	0.724	0.702
IL-6:IL-10	Admission (D0)	1.53	0.88	0.46	0.727	0.706
Dublin-Boston score		0.39	0.34	0.22	0.921	0.897

IL – interleukin.

MSE – mean squared error.

MAE – mean absolute error.

RPS – ranked probability score.

Improved AUC – area under the curve for predicting the binary outcome of whether the patient improved or not.

Declined AUC – area under the curve for predicting the binary outcome of whether the patient declined or not.

D – Hospital day.