Table 2.

Best-fit parameters and relevant dates obtained by the forecasted model for the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy

	Italy	Lombardy	Emilia Romagna
Best-fit parameters
A	3.67·105 *	7.29·104 *	2.71·105 *
B	−3.51 *	−3.10 *	− 3.28 *
Na	234,000 (214,000-251,000)	90,500 (82,500-97,500)	44,000 (38,500-51,000)
Relevant datesb
Peak	27 March (33)	24 March (30)	1 April (38)
End	28 June (126)	27 June (125)	19 June (117)

* P < 10⁻⁵

^aBetween brackets we report 95% CI

^bBetween brackets we report the number of days since the outbreak started