Table 2.

Changes to reclassification across three cardiovascular prediction models, in the derivation cohort

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 2 (recalibrated SCORE)
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)	Predicted 10-year risk (recalibrated SCORE)		Reclassified		Net correctly reclassified
		<5%	>5%	Increased risk	Decreased risk
Died from CVD (n = 338)
	<5%	67	10	3%		−11%
	>5%	47	214		14%
Did not die from CVD (n = 14 260)
	<5%	8885	288	2%		15%
	>5%	2377	2710		17%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.03	(−0.01 to 0.08)	P = 0.09
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.19	(0.08 to 0.29)	P < 0.0001

From model 2 (recalibrated SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (recalibrated SCORE)	Predicted 10-year risk (HAPIEE SCORE)		Reclassified		Net correctly reclassified
		<5%	>5%	Increased risk	Decreased risk
Died from CVD (n = 338)
	<5%	90	24	7%		2.4%
	>5%	16	208		5%
Did not die from CVD (n = 14 260)
	<5%	10 671	591	4%		0.4%
	>5%	654	2344		5%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.03	(−0.01 to 0.07)	P = 0.14
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.44	(0.33 to 0.55)	P < 0.0001

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)	Predicted 10-year risk (HAPIEE SCORE)		Reclassified		Net correctly reclassified
		<5%	>5%	Increased risk	Decreased risk
Died from CVD (n = 338)
	<5%	60	17	5%		−8.6%
	>5%	46	215		14%
Did not die from CVD (n = 14 260)
	<5%	8774	399	3%		15%
	>5%	2551	2536		18%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.07	(0.02 to 0.11)	P = 0.005
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.45	(0.34 to 0.56)	P < 0.0001

CI, confidence interval; CVD, cardiovascular disease.