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. 2020 Oct 8;25(40):2000250. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.40.2000250

Table 1. Estimates for the incubation period based on the Weibull distribution for the COVID-19 epidemic, by age group, sex, epidemic phase and location, China, 1 January–11 February 2020 (n = 1,158).

Incubation period (days) Number of cases Median 95th percentile 99th percentile
Estimate 95% CIa Estimate 95% CIa Estimate 95% CIa
Ageb (years)
< 18 61 8.8 7.3–10.5 18.0 14.8–20.8 22.3 16.8–25.4
18‒44 500 7.1 6.7–7.6 14.5 13.6–15.3 17.8 16.1–19.2
45‒59 334 6.9 6.4–7.4 14.3 13.2–15.4 17.8 15.7–19.3
≥ 60 193 7.2 6.4–8.0 15.6 14.0–17.2 19.6 16.6–22.2
Sexb
Female 568 7.3 6.8–7.7 15.2 14.2–16.1 18.9 17.2–20.4
Male 587 7.1 6.7–7.5 14.9 14.0–15.8 18.5 16.9–20.0
Location
South 640 7.0 6.6–7.4 14.8 14.0–15.7 18.5 17.0–20.0
North 518 7.4 6.9–7.9 15.3 14.4–16.3 19.0 17.2–20.4
Phase
Before 25 Jan 2020 278 4.4 4.0–4.9 10.8 9.6–11.8 14.0 11.9–15.8
25‒31 Jan 2020 543 6.5 6.1–6.8 12.2 11.5–12.8 14.7 13.5–15.7
After 31 Jan 2020 337 11.5 11.1–12.0 17.1 16.3–17.8 19.2 18.1–20.2
Overall 1,158 7.2 6.9–7.5 15.1 14.4–15.7 18.7 17.6–19.8

CI: confidence interval; COVID-19: coronavirus disease.

a 95% CI was calculated using 1,000 parametric bootstrap samples.

b Age and sex data were not available for 70 and three cases, respectively.