Table 1. Estimates for the incubation period based on the Weibull distribution for the COVID-19 epidemic, by age group, sex, epidemic phase and location, China, 1 January–11 February 2020 (n = 1,158).
Incubation period (days) | Number of cases | Median | 95th percentile | 99th percentile | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimate | 95% CIa | Estimate | 95% CIa | Estimate | 95% CIa | ||
Ageb (years) | |||||||
< 18 | 61 | 8.8 | 7.3–10.5 | 18.0 | 14.8–20.8 | 22.3 | 16.8–25.4 |
18‒44 | 500 | 7.1 | 6.7–7.6 | 14.5 | 13.6–15.3 | 17.8 | 16.1–19.2 |
45‒59 | 334 | 6.9 | 6.4–7.4 | 14.3 | 13.2–15.4 | 17.8 | 15.7–19.3 |
≥ 60 | 193 | 7.2 | 6.4–8.0 | 15.6 | 14.0–17.2 | 19.6 | 16.6–22.2 |
Sexb | |||||||
Female | 568 | 7.3 | 6.8–7.7 | 15.2 | 14.2–16.1 | 18.9 | 17.2–20.4 |
Male | 587 | 7.1 | 6.7–7.5 | 14.9 | 14.0–15.8 | 18.5 | 16.9–20.0 |
Location | |||||||
South | 640 | 7.0 | 6.6–7.4 | 14.8 | 14.0–15.7 | 18.5 | 17.0–20.0 |
North | 518 | 7.4 | 6.9–7.9 | 15.3 | 14.4–16.3 | 19.0 | 17.2–20.4 |
Phase | |||||||
Before 25 Jan 2020 | 278 | 4.4 | 4.0–4.9 | 10.8 | 9.6–11.8 | 14.0 | 11.9–15.8 |
25‒31 Jan 2020 | 543 | 6.5 | 6.1–6.8 | 12.2 | 11.5–12.8 | 14.7 | 13.5–15.7 |
After 31 Jan 2020 | 337 | 11.5 | 11.1–12.0 | 17.1 | 16.3–17.8 | 19.2 | 18.1–20.2 |
Overall | 1,158 | 7.2 | 6.9–7.5 | 15.1 | 14.4–15.7 | 18.7 | 17.6–19.8 |
CI: confidence interval; COVID-19: coronavirus disease.
a 95% CI was calculated using 1,000 parametric bootstrap samples.
b Age and sex data were not available for 70 and three cases, respectively.