Table 2.

Average Marginal Effects of Cigarette Tax (State/Federal) and Average Sale Price on Adolescent Smoking by Grade, Monitoring the Future, 2005-2016. Results Shown are Using Imputed Data (m=10).

	8^th graders		10^th graders		12^th graders
	^aAME (95% CI)	P	^aAME (95% CI)	P	^aAME (95% CI)	P
Smoking participation
Tax	−0.007 (−0.010, −0.003)	<0.001	0.003 (−0.001, 0.008)	0.156	−0.009 (−0.015, −0.003)	0.002
Price	−0.007 (−0.010, −0.003)	<0.001	0.002 (−0.002, 0.007)	0.298	−0.011 (−0.016, −0.005)	<0.001
N	193570		185943		171019
Conditional intensity
Tax	0.09 (−0.31, 0.50)	0.649	−0.22 (−0.44, 0.00	0.053	−0.30 (−0.49, −0.11)	0.002
Price	−0.02 (−0.38, 0.34)	0.925	−0.23 (−0.43, −0.03)	0.021	−0.27 (−0.44, −0.09)	0.003
N	11501		20019		29667
First cigarette initiation
Tax	−0.004 (−0.006, −0.002)	<0.001	0.000 (−0.002, 0.003)	0.820	−0.002 (−0.006, 0.003)	0.389
Price	−0.004 (−0.006, −0.002)	<0.001	0.001 (−0.002, 0.003)	0.701	−0.001 (−0.006, 0.003)	0.474
N	163427		138073		53933
Daily smoking initiation
Tax	−0.003 (−0.004, −0.001)	0.002	0.002 (−0.006, 0.009)	0.646	−0.003 (−0.006, −0.000)	0.043
Price	−0.003 (−0.004, −0.001)	0.003	0.002 (−0.004, 0.008)	0.541	−0.002 (−0.005, 0.000)	0.104
N	186398		171541		74231

Abbreviations: Average marginal effects (AME), confidence interval (CI)

Each average marginal effect is estimated from a single model with either tax or price as the independent variable. Average marginal effects are the average change in predicted probability of the outcome, associated with a one-dollar increase in tax or price. In addition to tax or price, all Poisson models included all variables shown in Table 1 for each grade as well as a year indicator and a state random effect. Conditional intensity was investigated using linear models, adjusted for the same covariates as the Poisson models; interpretation is for a change in the mean cigarettes per day. The initiation questions were only asked for half of the 12^th grade forms so sample size is halved.