Table 1. Parameters.
| Parameter | Value (Range) | Distribution | Reference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β (transmission rate) | 0.00085 (0.00075–0.00095) | Nml | Poore & Bauch (2015) [19] | |
| ĸ (contact rate) | 10.86 (4.19–17.53) | Nml | Mossong et al. (2008) [20] | |
| δ (rate of progression to disease given carriage) | 0.000870 (0.000812–0.000933) | Nml | Trotter et al. (2006) [21] | |
| μ (disease mortality, per 100,000 people) | 0.000315 (0.000137–0.000493) | Nml | Pace & Pollard (2012) [22] | |
| γc (rate of recovery from carriage) | 0.00658 (0.00365–0.00951) | Nml | Trotter et al. (2006) [21] | |
| γ(rate of recovery from infection) | 0.152† (0.083–0.383) | Nml | Institute of Medicine (US) Committee (2000) [23] | |
| Batista et al. (2017) [24] | ||||
| τ (rate of immunity loss) | 0.00137 (0.000913–0.00274) | Nml | Poore & Bauch (2015) [19] | |
| q (vaccine efficacy), % | 73 (57–87) | Nml | Vogel et al. (2013) [25] | |
| Adverse Reactions | 0‖ | |||
| Meningococcal Disease Sequelae Probabilities | ||||
| Skin scarring, % | 7.6 (0–19) | Nml, trunc | Shepard et al. (2005) [26] | |
| Single amputation, % | 1.9 (0.5–10) | Nml, trunc | Shepard et al. (2005) [26] | |
| Multiple amputations, % | 1.2 (0.02–6) | Nml, trunc | Shepard et al. (2005) [26] | |
| Hearing loss, % | 6.4 (2–20) | Nml, trunc | Shepard et al. (2005) [26] | |
| Neurologic disability, % | 2.1 (0.02–11) | Nml, trunc | Shepard et al. (2005) [26] | |
| Case fatality rate, % | 9.3 (3.1–13.7) | Nml | Ortega-Sanchez et al. (2008) [27] | |
| Sequelae-specific health-utility weights | ||||
| Acute Disease | 0.0033 (0–0.0066) | Nml | Institute of Medicine (US) Committee (2000) [23] | |
| Skin scarring | 1 (0.8–1) | Nml, trunc | Ortega-Sanchez et al. (2008) [27] | |
| Single amputation | 0.70 (0.31–0.80) | Nml | Ortega-Sanchez et al. (2008) [27] | |
| Multiple amputation | 0.61 (0.31–0.71) | Nml | Ortega-Sanchez et al. (2008) [27] | |
| Hearing loss | 0.72 (0.64–0.82) | Nml | Ortega-Sanchez et al. (2008) [27] | |
| Long-term neurologic disability | 0.06 (0–0.39) | Nml, trunc | Ortega-Sanchez et al. (2008) [27] | |
| Costs associated with our models and health states | ||||
| Acute Disease | Initial hospitalization, $ | 52,868 (45,997–64,264) | Nml | Davis et al. (2011) [28] |
| Lifetime Costs of Meningococcal Sequelae | Skin scarring, $ | 7,378 (3,689–11,067) | Nml | Shepard et al. (2005) [26] |
| Single amputation, $ | 215,356 (107,677–323,034) | Nml | Shepard et al. (2005) [26] | |
| Multiple amputations, $ | 258,427 (129,213–387,639) | Nml | Shepard et al. (2005) [26] | |
| Hearing loss, $ | 88,879 (33,912–143,846) | Nml | Shepard et al. (2005) [26] | |
| CDC (2004) [29] | ||||
| Neurologic disability, $ | 3,241,896 (1,195,167–4,257,677) | Nml | Shepard et al. (2005) [26] | |
| Vaccination Costs | Cost of vaccination per person, $ | 310.27 (50.00–500.00) | Nml | CDC Vaccine Price List (2020) [30] |
| Vaccine wastage, % | 10 (0–25) | Nml | Ortega-Sanchez et al. (2008) [27] | |
| Cost of vaccine administration per person, $ | 28.88* (24.06–43.30) | Nml | CMS (2020) [31] | |
| Outbreak Response Costs | Costs by University and other entities, $ | 14,500,000 (13,200,000–15,800,000) | Nml | La et al. (2018) [32] |
| Productivity (friction cost approach) | Productivity costs of skin scarring, amputation, neurological deficit, or hearing loss | 0 | Nml | Leeds et al. (2019) [7] |
| Productivity costs of early death | 9,174 (8,916–9,432) | Nml | Leeds et al. (2019) [7] | |
| Discount Rate, % | 3 (1–5) | Nml | Sanders et al. (2016) [33] | |
Trunc indicates truncated; nml, normal.
† γ was determined by taking the reciprocal of the average of the duration of recovery without complications and the duration
of recovery with serious long-lasting sequelae.
‖ We assumed that the incidence of adverse reactions (1/900,000) from vaccination is negligible.
*Vaccine administration costs were assumed to be $12.03 per dose in a mass vaccination and either $14.44 for administration
during an existing visit to a clinician in a physician office setting or $21.65 for administration during an extra physician office
setting visit based on Medicare payment rates [31].