Table 1. Observed and modelled excess mortality by macro-regions and by direct COVID-19 fatalities.

Macro-region	All cause deaths	Expected deaths posterior mean (95% interval)	Total excess deaths posterior mean (95% interval)	COVID-19 deaths	Non-COVID-19 excess deaths posterior mean (95% interval)
North West	18,059	11,117 (10,392 to 11,917)	6,942 (6,142 to 7,667)	4,370	2,572 (1,772 to 3,297)
Lombardia	39,397	15,451 (14,611 to 16,384)	23,946 (23,013 to 24,786)	13,749	10,197 (9,264 to 11,037)
North East	26,694	18,661 (17,650 to 19,633)	8,033 (7,061 to 9,044)	5,986	2,047 (1,075 to 3,058)
Centre	20,903	19,315 (18,203 to 20,499)	1,588 (404 to 2,700)	2,256	-668 (-1,852 to 444)
South + Islands	31,367	30,846 (29,268 to 32,387)	521 (-1,020 to 2,098)	1,577	-1,056 (-2,597 to 521)

For the modelled excess we summed the posterior draws across all the municipalities in each macro-area. We present the posterior mean and 95% interval.