Table 1. Key model parameters.
| Parameter | Value | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Epidemiologic Variables | |||
| LMIC deaths (millions) | 15.82 (13.45–18.19) | lognormal | 15,17 |
| LMIC cases (millions) | 1,146 (974.3–1,318) | lognormal | 15,17 |
| HCW infections as % of total infections (full PPE case) | 0.42 (0.36–0.49) | lognormal | 20–28 |
| HCW infections as % of total infection (limited PPE case) | 14.5 (4.0–25.0) | lognormal | 20–28 |
| Case acuity mix % (mild/moderate/critical) | 80.0/13.8/6.20 | beta | 17 |
| Case fatality (%) | 1.38 (1.23–1.53) | lognormal | 17 |
| Utilization Inputs | Value (range for sensitivity analysis) | ||
| Mean hospital days for severe infection | 11 (6–21) | lognormal | Estimate |
| Days of work missed for infection (mild/moderate/severe) | 13/28/40 | lognormal | Estimate |
| Cost Inputs (2020 USD) | |||
| Nitrile gloves (per pair) | 0.06 (0.01–2.63) | gamma | 15 |
| Polypropylene contact gown | 0.80 (0.69–4.40) | gamma | 15 |
| Plastic face shield | 0.60 (0.50–3.28) | gamma | 15 |
| N-95 Mask | 0.70 (0.58–0.92) | gamma | 15 |
| Liquid soap (per liter) | 0.90 (0.85–1.15) | gamma | 15 |
| Hospital bed per day | Varies by country | gamma | 23 |
| GDP per capita | Varies by country | gamma | 20 |
| Number of HCW per country | Varies by country | lognormal | 22 |
* Assumes HCW are at same risk as rest of population.
**2019 US bulk purchase price at the facility level.