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. 2020 Oct 10;106(2):1149–1167. doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05989-6

Table 5.

Impact of different diagnosis rates on the epidemic after a further relaxation of control

Curve number β(t) average increase rate compared to baseline (%) Daily confirmed cases curve Cumulative confirmed cases curve Cumulative fatal cases curve
Second peak value Second peak time Second outbreak Duration Stable value (decrease rate compared to baseline) Stable value (decrease rate compared to baseline)
I 28.97 9976 2 95 1,629,180 (29.73%) 33,360 (9.103%)
II 15.04 9649 2 114 1,703,095 (26.54%) 33,755 (8.027%)
III 7.158 9985 17 129 1,869,139 (19.38%) 34,576 (5.790%)
Baseline 16,007 32 144 2,318,550 (−) 36,701 (−)
IV − 5.425 25,733 44 156 2,982,492 (− 28.64%) 39,401 (− 7.357%)