Table 2.

Comparison of each of the simulated scenarios.

Simulation	Total cases	Total deaths	Maximum hospitalized	Days over hospital’s capacity (nation)	Regions over hospital’s capacity	Economic cost [M€]
All regions but Lombardy are locked down (Fig. 2)	10,550,000 ± 146,084	1,196,063 ± 97,122	137,640 ± 10,249	75.8 ± 2.7	3	503,355 ± 0
Intermittent regional measures (Fig. 3a, b)	1,986,601 ± 76,184	173,637 ± 3911	2801 ± 170	0 ± 0	0	509,142 ± 6606
Intermittent national measure (Fig. 3c, S4)	2,162,539 ± 194,929	205,261 ± 10,854	4481 ± 277	0 ± 0	3	562,373 ± 12,809
Intermittent regional measures with increased testing (Fig. 4)	1,590,459 ± 69,118	128,644 ± 2690	2057 ± 102	0 ± 0	0	366,514 ± 12,258

Metrics to evaluate the impact over 1 year of each of the simulated scenarios are reported showing the effectiveness of the intermittent regional measures shown in Figs. 3 and 4 in avoiding any saturation of the regional health systems while mitigating the impact of the epidemic. We report the average values ±1 standard deviation calculated over 10,000 repetitions of each simulation, where the parameter values are sampled using a Latin Hypercube technique centred at the nominal parameter values reported in Supplementary Table 4.