Table 2.
Simulation | Total cases | Total deaths | Maximum hospitalized | Days over hospital’s capacity (nation) | Regions over hospital’s capacity | Economic cost [M€] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All regions but Lombardy are locked down (Fig. 2) | 10,550,000 ± 146,084 | 1,196,063 ± 97,122 | 137,640 ± 10,249 | 75.8 ± 2.7 | 3 | 503,355 ± 0 |
Intermittent regional measures (Fig. 3a, b) | 1,986,601 ± 76,184 | 173,637 ± 3911 | 2801 ± 170 | 0 ± 0 | 0 | 509,142 ± 6606 |
Intermittent national measure (Fig. 3c, S4) | 2,162,539 ± 194,929 | 205,261 ± 10,854 | 4481 ± 277 | 0 ± 0 | 3 | 562,373 ± 12,809 |
Intermittent regional measures with increased testing (Fig. 4) | 1,590,459 ± 69,118 | 128,644 ± 2690 | 2057 ± 102 | 0 ± 0 | 0 | 366,514 ± 12,258 |
Metrics to evaluate the impact over 1 year of each of the simulated scenarios are reported showing the effectiveness of the intermittent regional measures shown in Figs. 3 and 4 in avoiding any saturation of the regional health systems while mitigating the impact of the epidemic. We report the average values ±1 standard deviation calculated over 10,000 repetitions of each simulation, where the parameter values are sampled using a Latin Hypercube technique centred at the nominal parameter values reported in Supplementary Table 4.