Table 4.
Parameters of the Best ARIMA models.
| Country | Best Model | Coefficients | s.e. | AIC | AICc | BIC | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | ARIMA (0,2,3) | ma1 | −1.5122 | 0.0875 | 1471.74 | 1472.13 | 1482.43 | −731.87 |
| ma2 | 0.2097 | 0.1402 | ||||||
| ma3 | 0.3593 | 0.0791 | ||||||
| Nigeria | ARIMA (0,1,1) with drift | ma1 | −0.7444 | 0.0707 | 1225.67 | 1225.9 | 1233.71 | −609.83 |
| Drift | 4.7413 | 1.7271 | ||||||
| Ghana | ARIMA (3,1,0) | ar1 | −0.9429 | 0.0822 | 1374.12 | 1374.51 | 1384.85 | −683.06 |
| ar2 | −0.6729 | 0.1028 | ||||||
| ar3 | −0.5303 | 0.0862 | ||||||
| Egypt | ARIMA (0,1,2) with drift | ma1 | −0.109 | 0.0896 | 1296.01 | 1296.4 | 1306.74 | −644.01 |
| ma2 | −0.3312 | 0.0866 | ||||||
| drift | 14.978 | 5.1267 | ||||||