Table 6.
Prediction of total confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the next ten days according to ARIMA models with 95% confidence interval.
| Date | SA |
Nigeria |
Ghana |
Egypt |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIMA (0,2,3) |
ARIMA (0,1,1) with drift |
ARIMA (3,1,0) |
ARIMA (0,1,2) with drift |
||||||||||
| Forecast | Lower limit | Upper limit | Forecast | Lower limit | Upper limit | Forecast | Lower limit | Upper limit | Forecast | Lower limit | Upper limit | ||
| 16-Jun-20 | 3932.79 | 3496.29 | 4369.29 | 503.27 | 368.15 | 638.40 | 221.39 | −45.00 | 487.78 | 1605.62 | 1418.84 | 1792.39 | |
| 17-Jun-20 | 3895.49 | 3409.80 | 4381.18 | 508.02 | 368.55 | 647.49 | 605.37 | 338.55 | 872.19 | 1627.36 | 1377.20 | 1877.51 | |
| 18-Jun-20 | 4105.65 | 3613.27 | 4598.04 | 512.76 | 369.08 | 656.44 | 332.83 | 56.26 | 609.41 | 1642.33 | 1371.21 | 1913.45 | |
| 19-Jun-20 | 4315.81 | 3812.19 | 4819.43 | 517.50 | 369.72 | 665.27 | 501.46 | 221.05 | 781.87 | 1657.31 | 1366.73 | 1947.89 | |
| 20-Jun-20 | 4525.97 | 4005.70 | 5046.25 | 522.24 | 370.48 | 674.00 | 322.22 | −3.51 | 647.95 | 1672.29 | 1363.48 | 1981.10 | |
| 21-Jun-20 | 4736.13 | 4193.14 | 5279.12 | 526.98 | 371.34 | 682.62 | 522.29 | 194.06 | 850.51 | 1687.27 | 1361.24 | 2013.29 | |
| 22-Jun-20 | 4946.29 | 4374.17 | 5518.41 | 531.72 | 372.30 | 691.15 | 364.82 | 23.88 | 705.77 | 1702.25 | 1359.87 | 2044.62 | |
| 23-Jun-20 | 5156.45 | 4548.70 | 5764.20 | 536.46 | 373.34 | 699.59 | 473.73 | 126.77 | 820.69 | 1717.22 | 1359.24 | 2075.20 | |
| 24-Jun-20 | 5366.61 | 4716.84 | 6016.38 | 541.21 | 374.47 | 707.94 | 370.90 | 3.04 | 738.76 | 1732.20 | 1359.27 | 2105.14 | |
| 25-Jun-20 | 5576.77 | 4878.87 | 6274.67 | 545.95 | 375.67 | 716.22 | 478.08 | 105.53 | 850.63 | 1747.18 | 1359.87 | 2134.49 | |
| 26-Jun-20 | 5786.93 | 5035.14 | 6538.72 | 550.69 | 376.94 | 724.43 | 388.46 | 4.12 | 772.80 | 1762.16 | 1360.99 | 2163.33 | |
| 27-Jun-20 | 5997.09 | 5186.05 | 6808.13 | 555.43 | 378.28 | 732.57 | 455.37 | 64.19 | 846.56 | 1777.14 | 1362.57 | 2191.70 | |
| 28-Jun-20 | 6207.25 | 5331.96 | 7082.53 | 560.17 | 379.69 | 740.65 | 395.74 | −8.74 | 800.23 | 1792.11 | 1364.57 | 2219.66 | |
| 29-Jun-20 | 6417.41 | 5473.27 | 7361.55 | 564.91 | 381.16 | 748.67 | 454.47 | 43.92 | 865.01 | 1807.09 | 1366.95 | 2247.23 | |
| 30-Jun-20 | 6627.57 | 5610.28 | 7644.85 | 569.65 | 382.68 | 756.63 | 403.73 | −17.05 | 824.52 | 1822.07 | 1369.68 | 2274.46 | |
| 1-Jul-20 | 6837.73 | 5743.31 | 7932.15 | 574.39 | 384.26 | 764.53 | 443.68 | 15.81 | 871.55 | 1837.05 | 1372.74 | 2301.36 | |
| 2-Jul-20 | 7047.89 | 5872.60 | 8223.17 | 579.14 | 385.89 | 772.38 | 409.01 | −29.05 | 847.07 | 1852.03 | 1376.09 | 2327.96 | |
| 3-Jul-20 | 7258.05 | 5998.40 | 8517.69 | 583.88 | 387.57 | 780.19 | 441.73 | −3.00 | 886.45 | 1867.00 | 1379.73 | 2354.28 | |
| 4-Jul-20 | 7468.21 | 6120.90 | 8815.51 | 588.62 | 389.29 | 787.94 | 413.02 | −40.67 | 866.71 | 1881.98 | 1383.62 | 2380.35 | |
| 5-Jul-20 | 7678.37 | 6240.28 | 9116.45 | 593.36 | 391.06 | 795.65 | 436.46 | −24.29 | 897.21 | 1896.96 | 1387.75 | 2406.17 | |