Table 1.
The first column shows the different values for the model parameter β such that the maximal density of infectious bank voles in the increase year equals 8.4 bank voles/ha (marked by “+” in Figures 5, 6) for the different models.
| Model | β(year−1vole−1) | Maximal density of infectious voles in peak year | Maximal viral load in peak year | Time delay in increase year (months) | Time delay in peak year (months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figures 5A,B | 16,400 | 16.6 | 1.66 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Figures 5C,D | 16,400 | 16.2 | 1.62 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Figures 5E,F | 59,000 | 11.3 | 0.99 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Figures 5G,H | 59,000 | 11.0 | 0.96 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Figures 6A,B | 59,000 | 11.0 | 0.96 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Figures 6C,D | 300,000 | 10.2 | 1.33 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Figures 6E,F | 29,000 | 10.1 | 0.64 | 3.4 | 3.7 |
The data of the other columns correspond to the different features of the simulated infection dynamics that are considered in the analyses. These values are compared with their respective values measured in the field: maximal density of infectious voles in a peak year: 8.8 voles/ha; maximal viral quantity (number of NE-cases) in a peak year: in general <1; the delay between bank vole abundance peaks and virus quantity peaks (number of NE-cases): between 1 and 3 months.