Table 2. Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US Compared With That in Other Countriesa.
| Country | Excess all-cause mortality per 100 000 | Excess US deaths from all causes (% of reported deaths) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since the start of the pandemic | Since May 10, 2020 | Since June 7, 2020 | Since the start of the pandemic | Since May 10, 2020 | Since June 7, 2020 | ||
| Moderate mortality (COVID-19 deaths, 5-25/100 000) | |||||||
| Norway | −2.6 | −4.3 | −2.1 | 235 610 (100) | 102 598 (44) | 63 952 (27) | |
| Denmark | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 218 664 (93) | 96 375 (41) | 57 910 (25) | |
| Israel | 8 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 209 376 (89) | 77 932 (33) | 46 091 (20) | |
| Germany | 10.0 | 1.4 | −0.2 | 202 547 (86) | 97 905 (42) | 63 952 (27) | |
| Canada | 13.3 | −3.7 | −7.6 | 192 009 (81) | 102 598 (44) | 63 952 (27) | |
| Switzerland | 17.0 | −3.6 | −2.7 | 179 545 (76) | 102 598 (44) | 63 952 (27) | |
| Austria | 17.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 179 208 (76) | 92 042 (39) | 59 375 (25) | |
| Finland | 19.1 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 172 706 (73) | 74 116 (31) | 46 264 (20) | |
| High mortality (COVID-19 deaths, >25/100 000) | |||||||
| Sweden | 50.8 | 14.9 | 3.7 | 68 540 (29) | 53 429 (23) | 51 864 (22) | |
| France | 51.5 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 66 167 (28) | 83 301 (35) | 55 512 (24) | |
| The Netherlands | 55.1 | 0.1 | −0.7 | 54 282 (23) | 102 157 (43) | 63 952 (27) | |
| Belgium | 67.8 | −4.6 | −6.4 | 12 638 (5) | 102 598 (44) | 63 952 (27) | |
| United Kingdom | 94.5 | 13.7 | −1.2 | −75 196 (−32) | 57 659 (24) | 63 952 (27) | |
| Spain | 102.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | −100 768 (−43) | 95 784 (41) | 57 948 (25) | |
| United States | 71.6 | 31.2 | 19.4 | ||||
Data on deaths are through July 25, 2020 (week 30, n = 235 610 excess US deaths compared with 145 546 reported COVID-19 deaths). Countries lacking publicly available all-cause mortality data through this time are omitted. Excess deaths were estimated by week, compared with 2015-2019, beginning when a country surpassed 1 COVID-19 case per million population. In columns 3-5, due to large sample sizes, all mortality rates are statistically significantly different from the corresponding US mortality rates (P < .001). Scenarios in the last 3 columns assume that compared with the country in a given row: (A) the US had a comparable cumulative mortality rate; (B) the US excess all-cause mortality rate was unchanged until May 10 (week 20, n = 133 012 deaths), when it became comparable to the other country’s death rate; and (C) the US excess all-cause mortality rate was unchanged until June 7 (week 24, n = 171 659 deaths), when it became comparable to the other country’s death rate. Totals are truncated to avoid exceeding US estimated deaths. Due to reporting lags, these data include less follow-up time than Table 1, which in some cases produces lower cumulative death rates.