Table 1.
Scenario | Description | Recommendation |
S1 | Suppose patient A and patient B due to their individual characteristics have the same remaining life expectancy. The estimated probability of survival in the ICU is higher for patient A than for patient B. The guidelines should prescribe that: | Admit patient A |
S2 | Suppose patient A has higher remaining life expectancy than patient B. The estimated probability of survival in the ICU is the same for both patients. The guidelines should prescribe that: | Admit patient A |
S3 | Suppose patient B is chronically ill and has been in an ICU for 2 months. Patient A has contracted COVID-19. Patient B has a lower probability of survival under the ICU than patient A. The guidelines should prescribe that: | Admit patient A |
S4 | Suppose patient B is chronically ill. Patient A has contracted COVID-19. Patient B has a lower probability of survival under the ICU than patient A. The guidelines should prescribe that: | Admit patient A |
S5 | Suppose patient A is a nurse working in a COVID-19 hospital. Patients A and B have the same probability of survival in the ICU and the same life expectancy according to their sociodemographic characteristics. The guidelines should prescribe that: | Admit patient A |
S6 | Suppose patient A is a scientist working on COVID-19 vaccine. Patient B has a job unrelated to the health sector. Patients A and B have the same probability of survival in the ICU and the same life expectancy according to their sociodemographic characteristics. The guidelines should prescribe that: | Admit patient A |
S7 | Suppose patient A has the same remaining life expectancy than patient B. The estimated probability of survival in the ICU is the same for both patients. The guidelines should prescribe that: | Random admission |
S8 | Suppose patient A has pneumonia not caused by COVID-19 and patient B has contracted COVID-19. According to their sociodemographic characteristics, they have the same life expectancy and the same probability of survival in the ICU. The guidelines should prescribe that: | Random admission |
For each scenario, the last column indicates the recommendation according to the guidelines in ref 2. The text of scenarios 3 and 4 has been slightly amended for comparability with the other scenarios (see, in particular, figure 1) with respect to the labels of patient A and patient B. For the exact wording, see questions 6 and 7 in online supplemental appendix A. The order has also been adjusted to be in line with the order of presentation of the results.
ICU, intensive care unit.