Fig. 1.

Potential changes in HIV incidence (A) and deaths (B) following a hypothetical three-month disruption of HIV services. Orange shading indicates the period during which the three-month disruptions occur. Baseline (no COVID-19 epidemic occurs) = dark blue line; Reduced contact rates = orange line; No new VMMCs = yellow line; Viral suppression decreases by 10% = purple line; No new ART initiations = green line; Condom use reduced by 50% = light blue line; Interruption in ART for 40% of individuals = dark red line. Panel insets in (A) show a magnified view of HIV incidence patterns from 2020.5 to 2021.