Table 3.

Alternative assumptions used for the risk of death experienced by those PLHIV whose ART supply is interrupted.

	Average monthly mortality risk	Proportion that would die after one year	Justification
Lower bound	0.10%	1.24%	This is a hypothetical best-case scenario in which the vast majority of individuals do not deteriorate rapidly.
Medium	0.24%	2.91%	The SMART trial found a 3% risk at 12 months of either death of an opportunistic infection for those with interrupted ART [13]. This also implies a mean survival time approximately equivalent to that for HIV-positive persons who have never been on ART [14].
Upper bound	0.44%	5.28%	This is the hypothetical worst-case scenario in which many persons deteriorate more rapidly.