Table 1.
Spare capacity at the pre-pandemic baseline and under alternative hospital provision intervention scenarios
| Scenario | CC Beds | CC Nurses (FTE) | CC Junior Doctors (FTE) | CC Senior Doctors (FTE) | Ventilators | G&A Beds | G&A Nurses (FTE) | G&A Junior Doctors (FTE) | G&A Senior Doctors (FTE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No interventions | − 2283 | − 2773 | − 217 | 403 | 4804 | − 5931 | 8666 | 1819 | 3871 |
| All implemented interventions | − 474 (79%) | − 359 (87%) | − 22 (90%) | 568 (41%) | 6430 (34%) | 46,567 (885%) | 42,816 (394%) | 9499 (422%) | 7636 (97%) |
| Individual hospital provision interventions | |||||||||
| Cancellation of elective operations | − 1294 (43%) | − 1784 (36%) | − 94 (57%) | 469 (16%) | 5230 (9%) | 30,887 (621%) | 16,029 (85%) | 4273 (135%) | 6326 (63%) |
| Set-up of field hospitals | − 1783 (22%) | −2773 (0%) | − 217 (0%) | 403 (0%) | 4804 (0%) | 2069 (135%) | 8666 (0%) | 1819 (0%) | 3871 (0%) |
| Deployment of newly qualified and final year medicine and nursing students | − 2283 (0%) | −2773 (0%) | − 217 (0%) | 403 (0%) | 4804 (0%) | − 5931 (0%) | 23,805 (175%) | 5981 (229%) | 3871 (0%) |
| Return of former healthcare staff | − 2283 (0%) | − 2230 (20%) | − 161 (26%) | 482 (20%) | 4804 (0%) | − 5931 (0%) | 13,099 (51%) | 2660 (46%) | 4909 (27%) |
| Use of private hospitals | − 1963 (14%) | − 1891 (32%) | − 203 (6%) | 424 (5%) | 6004 (25%) | 1749 (129%) | 15,879 (83%) | 2041 (12%) | 4144 (7%) |
Note: CC: critical care; G&A: general and acute. Scenarios presented are for the observed peak number of 3,100 COVID-19 patients in CC and 15,700 COVID-19 patients in G&A. The percentage change in spare capacity of each resource for each intervention, compared to spare capacity with no interventions at peak COVID-19 patient numbers, is shown in brackets