Table 3.
Predictors of progression of oral leukoplakia to oral cancer
| Characteristic | Overall |
<12 mo after leukoplakia diagnosis |
≥12 mo after leukoplakia diagnosis |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted HR (95% CI) | P * | Adjusted HR (95% CI) | P | Adjusted HR (95% CI) | P | |
| Entire leukoplakia cohort | ||||||
| Age† | 1.35 (1.19 to 1.53) | <.001 | 1.38 (1.15 to 1.65) | <.001 | 1.32 (1.12 to 1.57) | .001 |
| Sex† | .28 | .33 | .49 | |||
| Male | 0.84 (0.60 to 1.16) | 0.80 (0.50 to 1.29) | 0.86 (0.56 to 1.32) | |||
| Female | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | |||
| Race or ethnicity† | ||||||
| White, non-Hispanic | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | |||
| Black, non-Hispanic | 0.15 (0.02 to 1.12) | 0.06 | NE | 0.97 | 0.33 (0.05 to 2.37) | 0.27 |
| Hispanic | 1.10 (0.63 to 1.92) | 0.73 | 0.55 (0.20 to 1.53) | 0.25 | 1.70 (0.89 to 3.26) | 0.11 |
| Asian, Pacific Islander | 1.12 (0.69 to 1.80) | 0.65 | 0.84 (0.38 to 1.86) | 0.67 | 1.39 (0.74 to 2.59) | 0.31 |
| Other or unknown | 0.36 (0.09 to 1.49) | 0.16 | 0.31 (0.04 to 2.26) | 0.25 | 0.43 (0.06 to 3.11) | 0.40 |
| Socio-economic status† | 0.29 | 0.96 | 0.18 | |||
| (Quartile score) | 1.04 (0.97 to 1.11) | 1.00 (0.90 to 1.11) | 1.07 (0.97 to 1.71) | |||
| Smoking† | 0.35 | 0.14 | 0.83 | |||
| Never | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | |||
| Ever | 1.17 (0.85 to 1.61) | 1.43 (0.89 to 2.30) | 0.95 (0.59 to 1.53) | |||
| Alcohol abuse† | 0.73 | 0.55 | 0.92 | |||
| No | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | |||
| Yes | 1.13 (0.57 to 2.22) | 1.33 (0.53 to 3.36) | 0.95 (0.34 to 2.64) | |||
| HIV serostatus† | 0.23 | 0.36 | 0.46 | |||
| Negative | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | |||
| Positive | 1.79 (0.70 to 4.61) | 1.98 (0.46 to 8.47) | 1.57 (0.47 to 5.23) | |||
| Biopsy of leukoplakia† | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.003 | |||
| No | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | |||
| Yes | 2.38 (1.73 to 3.28) | 3.11 (1.91 to 5.07) | 1.92 (1.23 to 2.93) | |||
| Case-cohort component | ||||||
| Histopathology on biopsy‡ | ||||||
| No dysplasia | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.00 (Reference) | |||
| Mild dysplasia | 4.9 (2.3 to 10.7) | <0.001 | 9.7 (3.6 to 26.0) | <0.001 | 3.5 (1.7 to 7.4) | 0.001 |
| Moderate dysplasia | 6.0 (2.0 to 17.7) | 0.001 | 9.9 (2.5 to 38.8) | 0.001 | 4.7 (1.4 to 16.2) | 0.013 |
| Severe dysplasia | 15.8 (5.5 to 45.6) | <0.001 | 21.0 (6.2 to 71.3) | <0.001 | 15.0 (4.9 to 46.0) | <0.001 |
*
Two-sided Wald P values. HIV = human immunodeficiency virus.
†
Hazard ratios from Cox regression model in the entire precancer cohort (n = 4886). The model included age, sex, race or ethnicity, socio-economic status, smoking, alcohol, HIV status, and biopsy of precancer.
‡
Hazard ratios from weighted Cox regression model in the case-cohort component. Individuals with oral cancer on biopsy (n = 25) were excluded from analyses. The model included age, sex, race or ethnicity, socio-economic status, smoking, alcohol, HIV status, and histopathology on biopsy.