Fig. 3.

Monte Carlo: Density forecast performance (CRPS) for two forecast origins; four-week horizon. Notes: The date $t$ on the $x$-axis corresponds to the break point $t^{\ast }$ (in calendar time). The two vertical lines indicate forecast origin and target. Panel forecasts: early group is blue circles, late group is orange circles. Time-series forecasts: early group is purple crosses and late group is yellow crosses.(For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)