Fig. 8.

2020-04-18 forecasts for South Korea, Germany, and the U.S. Notes: Rows 1 to 3: The vertical lines indicate the forecast origin. The circles indicate actual infections. The solid lines prior to the forecast origin represent in-sample one-step-ahead forecasts. The solid lines after the forecast origin represent medians of the posterior predictive distribution. The gray shaded bands indicate the 20%–80% (dark) and 10%–90% (light) interquantile ranges of the posterior predictive distribution. Bottom row: cumulative density function (associated with posterior predictive distribution) of date of recovery defined as $\tau$ such that $I_{\tau }=I_0$.