Table 3.
Country-specific strength of association between deaths and cases (predicted case fatality rate, CFR)
| Country | Pearson correlation (r) | Simple linear regression (SLR) model to evaluate relationship between cumulative deaths (y) and diagnosed cases (x) [CFR = y/x] | Coefficient of determination (R2) for SLR model | Exponential growth (EG) model to evaluate relationship between cumulative deaths (y) and diagnosed cases (x), [CFR = y/x] | Coefficient of determination (R2) for EG model | Polynomial growth (PG) model to evaluate relationship between cumulative deaths (y) and diagnosed cases (x) [CFR = y/x] | Coefficient of determination (R2) for PG model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA |
0.99 |
y = 0.0182x - 48.4 |
0.979 |
y = 29.002e0.00003x |
0.663 |
y = 0.00000006x2 + 0.0097x + 21.651 |
0.999 |
| Germany |
0.96 |
y = 0.0093x - 68.1 |
0.915 |
y = 6.4584e0.00008x |
0.872 |
y = 0.0000002x2 - 0.0006 + 10.24 |
0.996 |
| China |
0.96 |
y = 0.0399x - 309 |
0.924 |
y = 83.267e0.00005x |
0.907 |
y = 0.0000005x2 - 0.0079x + 183.16 |
0.969 |
| Italy |
0.99 |
y = 0.1094x - 399.7 |
0.986 |
y = 59.277e0.00007x |
0.673 |
y = 0.00000057x2 + 0.0642x - 58.624 |
0.999 |
| Iran |
0.99 |
y = 0.0721x - 87.4 |
0.976 |
y = 33.548e0.0001x |
0.727 |
y = 0.00000001x2 + 0.0716x - 85.485 |
0.976 |
| Spain |
0.99 |
y = 0.0859x - 317 |
0.987 |
y = 40.211e0.00007x |
0.668 |
y = 0.0000004x2 + 0.0533x - 88.124 |
0.999 |
| South Korea |
0.88 |
y = 0.0133x - 18 |
0.779 |
y = 3.7164e0.0004x |
0.923 |
y = 0.000003x2 - 0.0148x + 18.415 |
0.945 |
| India | 0.99 | y = 0.0257x - 1.4 | 0.980 | y = 1.8001e0.0026x | 0.892 | y = 0.000005x2 + 0.019x - 0.285 | 0.985 |