Table 10.

Fixed effects specification: the total effect of policies on case and death growth (PI→Y).

	Dependent variable:
	$\Delta log\Delta C_{it}$
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
lag(masks for employees, 14)	$-0.103^{\ast \ast }$	$-0.271^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.097^{\ast \ast }$	$-0.255^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.044)	(0.075)	(0.044)	(0.071)
lag(closed K-12 schools, 14)	$-$0.023	0.085	$-$0.050	0.042
	(0.060)	(0.098)	(0.066)	(0.094)
lag(stay at home, 14)	$-0.123^{\ast \ast }$	$-$0.088	$-0.099^{\ast \ast }$	$-$0.055
	(0.051)	(0.068)	(0.049)	(0.075)
lag(business closure policies, 14)	$-$0.080	$-0.162^{\ast }$
	(0.076)	(0.086)
lag(closed movie theaters, 14)			0.049	0.077
			(0.068)	(0.084)
lag(closed restaurants, 14)			$-$0.031	$-$0.068
			(0.053)	(0.065)
lag(closed non-essent bus, 14)			$-0.099^{\ast \ast }$	$-0.166^{\ast \ast \ast }$
			(0.047)	(0.063)
lag($\Delta log\Delta C_{it}$, 14)	0.063${}^{\ast \ast }$	0.079${}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.061${}^{\ast \ast }$	0.076${}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.029)	(0.026)	(0.029)	(0.028)
lag($log\Delta C_{it}$, 14)	$-0.216^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.185^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.214^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.181^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.020)	(0.032)	(0.021)	(0.033)
$\Delta log{T}_{it}$	0.116${}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.116${}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.118${}^{\ast \ast \ast }$	0.147${}^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.047)
Observations	3,825	3,825	3,825	3,825
R2	0.782	0.782	0.782	0.782
Adjusted R2	0.778	0.778	0.778	0.778

	Dependent variable:
	$\Delta log\Delta D_{it}$
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
lag(masks for employees, 21)	$-0.136^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.144^{\ast }$	$-0.129^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-$0.109
	(0.047)	(0.074)	(0.047)	(0.075)
lag(closed K-12 schools, 21)	$-$0.115	$-$0.007	$-$0.161	$-$0.026
	(0.108)	(0.091)	(0.123)	(0.103)
lag(stay at home, 21)	$-$0.047	$-$0.097	$-$0.010	$-$0.151
	(0.077)	(0.099)	(0.072)	(0.112)
lag(business closure policies, 21)	$-$0.081	$-$0.166
	(0.099)	(0.137)
lag(closed movie theaters, 21)			0.041	$-$0.035
			(0.099)	(0.128)
lag(closed restaurants, 21)			0.015	$-$0.029
			(0.086)	(0.097)
lag(closed non-essent bus, 21)			$-0.143^{\ast \ast }$	$-$0.024
			(0.067)	(0.084)
lag($\Delta log\Delta D_{it}$, 21)	0.009	0.083${}^{\ast }$	0.006	0.084
	(0.031)	(0.045)	(0.032)	(0.055)
lag($log\Delta D_{it}$, 21)	$-0.113^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.113^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.108^{\ast \ast \ast }$	$-0.232^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.040)
Observations	3468	3468	3468	3468
R2	0.536	0.536	0.537	0.537
Adjusted R2	0.527	0.527	0.528	0.528

Note:${}^{\ast }$p$<$0.1; ${}^{\ast \ast }$p$<$0.05; ${}^{\ast \ast \ast }$p$<$0.01.

All specifications include weekly dummies and state fixed effects. Dependent variable is the weekly growth rate of confirmed cases (in the upper panel) or deaths (in the lower panel) as defined in Eq. (4). Columns (1) and (3) report the standard fixed effects estimator while Columns (2) and (4) report the fixed effects estimator with bias corrections. Standard errors are computed by multiplier bootstrap clustered at the state level.