Fig. 1.

Simulated examples of SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United Kingdom using an age-structured Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered (SEIR) model under different control scenarios. (A) Daily new cases assuming no intervention measures enacted. (B) Cumulative proportion of the population exposed to SARS-CoV-2 over the course of the epidemic. (C) Cumulative fatalities assuming fixed age-specific case fatality rates (see Materials and Methods). (D–F) Same as A–C, but assuming that specific control measures are introduced when daily cases reached 10,000 (day 57): Older individuals social distance, and symptomatic individuals self-isolate (at 20% effectiveness). (G–I) Same as D–F but, in addition, schools close on day 57. Reopening of schools after 100 d results in a resurgence.