Table3.
Hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of incident heart failure associated with progression of valvular calcification, MESA, 2000–2016
| Progressors vs non-progressors |
||
|---|---|---|
| Aortic valve calcium | Mitral annular calcium | |
| Heart failure, n (%)Progressors vs non-progressors | 59 (10.5) vs 192 (3.8) | 54 (9.6) vs 197 (3.9) |
| N Progressors vs non-progressors | 561 vs 5030 | 560 vs 5031 |
| Model 1 | 1.84 (1.36 – 49) | 1.80 (1.31 – 2.47) |
| Model 2 | 1.72 (1.27 – 2.32) | 1.60 (1.17 – 2.20) |
| Model 3 | 1.61 (1.19 – 2.19) | 1.50 (1.09 – 2.07) |
| Model 4 | 1.47 (1.08 – 2.01) | 1.37 (1.00 – 1.89) |
| HFpEF, n (%)Progressors vs non-progressors | 26 (4.9) vs 77 (1.6) | 32 (6.0) vs 71 (1.5) |
| N Progressors vs non-progressors | 528 vs 4915 | 538 vs 4905 |
| Model 1 | 2.06 (1.30 – 3.28) | 2.81 (1.80 – 4.38) |
| Model 2 | 1.93 (1.21 – 3.07) | 2.37 (1.52 – 3.71) |
| Model 3 | 1.84 (1.16 – 2.94) | 2.30 (1.47 – 3.59) |
| Model 4 | 1.75 (1.10 – 2.80) | 2.19 (1.40 – 3.43) |
| HFrEF, n (%)Progressors vs non-progressors | 25 (4.7) vs 99 (2.0) | 17 (3.3) vs 107 (2.2) |
| N Progressors vs non-progressors | 527 vs 4937 | 523 vs 4941 |
| Model 1 | 1.53 (0.97 – 2.41) | 1.14 (0.67 – 1.94) |
| Model 2 | 1.45 (0.92 – 2.29) | 1.04 (0.61 – 1.77) |
| Model 3 | 1.30 (0.82 – 2.05) | 0.94 (0.55 – 1.61) |
| Model 4 | 1.14 (0.72 – 1.82) | 0.84 (0.49 – 1.43) |
| Heart failure*, n (%)Progressors vs non-progressors | 59 (10.5) vs 192 (3.8) | 54 (9.6) vs 197 (3.9) |
| N Progressors vs non-progressors | 561 vs 5030 | 560 vs 5031 |
| Model 1 | 1.81 (1.34 – 2.45) | 1.74 (1.27 – 2.38) |
| Model 2 | 1.70 (1.26 – 2.30) | 1.58 (1.15 – 2.17) |
| Model 3 | 1.61 (1.19 – 2.18) | 1.47 (1.07 – 2.02) |
| Model 4 | 1.48 (1.09 – 2.01) | 1.35 (0.98 – 1.86) |
HFpEF= heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; HFrEF= heart failure with reduced ejection fraction
Values in bold font are statistically significant, p<0.05
Models additional adjust for interim coronary heart disease and atrial fibrillation as time-varying covariates and use time updated age
Model 1: age, race/ethnicity, sex, MESA site, & CT scanner type
Model 2: Model 1+ educational status, BMI, smoking status, pack-years of smoking, & physical activity
Model 3: Model 2 + systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensives, use of lipid lowering medications, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, diabetes status & eGFR
Model 4: Model 3 + baseline coronary calcium