Table 5.
Summary characteristics for top 5% of patients with highest predicted absolute risks of covid-19 death. Table shows results for all members of validation cohort
| Characteristic | Total population (n=2 173 056) | Total (column %) in top 5% predicted risk (n=108 652) | Top 5% predicted risk (row %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male sex | 1 075 788 | 63 755 (58.68) | 5.93 |
| Age band: | |||
| 19-29 years | 424 125 | * | * |
| 30-39 years | 417 590 | * | * |
| 40-49 years | 358 695 | 97 (0.09) | 0.03 |
| 50-59 years | 358 820 | 1028 (0.95) | 0.29 |
| 60-69 years | 270 340 | 6428 (5.92) | 2.38 |
| 70-79 years | 209 557 | 25 542 (23.51) | 12.19 |
| ≥80 years | 133 929 | 75 547 (69.53) | 56.41 |
| Ethnicity: | |||
| White | 1 780 507 | 90 958 (83.71) | 5.11 |
| Indian | 64 184 | 3034 (2.79) | 4.73 |
| Pakistani | 40 718 | 1863 (1.71) | 4.58 |
| Bangladeshi | 28 050 | 1247 (1.15) | 4.45 |
| Other Asian | 42 607 | 1489 (1.37) | 3.49 |
| Caribbean | 28 741 | 3702 (3.41) | 12.88 |
| Black African | 58 115 | 2884 (2.65) | 4.96 |
| Chinese | 29 972 | 603 (0.55) | 2.01 |
| Other ethnic group | 100 162 | 2872 (2.64) | 2.87 |
| Townsend deprivation fifth: | |||
| 1 (most affluent) | 446 359 | 20 010 (18.42) | 4.48 |
| 2 | 428 735 | 20 524 (18.89) | 4.79 |
| 3 | 439 846 | 23 758 (21.87) | 5.40 |
| 4 | 436 574 | 23 644 (21.76) | 5.42 |
| 5 (most deprived) | 409 917 | 20 437 (18.81) | 4.99 |
| Townsend not recorded | 11 625 | 279 (0.26) | 2.40 |
| Accommodation: | |||
| Neither homeless or care home resident | 2 155 199 | 97 210 (89.47) | 4.51 |
| Care home or nursing home resident | 14 057 | 11 269 (10.37) | 80.17 |
| Homeless | 3800 | 173 (0.16) | 4.55 |
| Body mass index: | |||
| <18.5 | 59 376 | 4188 (3.85) | 7.05 |
| 18.5-24.99 | 711 186 | 33 122 (30.48) | 4.66 |
| 25-29.99 | 596 942 | 34 044 (31.33) | 5.70 |
| 30-34.99 | 278 830 | 18 762 (17.27) | 6.73 |
| ≥35 | 160 345 | 13 086 (12.04) | 8.16 |
| Not recorded | 366 377 | 5450 (5.02) | 1.49 |
| Chronic kidney disease (CKD) | |||
| No CKD | 2 087 614 | 68 710 (63.24) | 3.29 |
| CKD3 | 76 600 | 34 418 (31.68) | 44.93 |
| CKD4 | 4648 | 3194 (2.94) | 68.72 |
| CKD5 only | 2527 | 1722 (1.58) | 68.14 |
| CKD5 with dialysis | 585 | 274 (0.25) | 46.84 |
| CKD5 with transplant | 1082 | 334 (0.31) | 30.87 |
| Learning disability: | |||
| No learning disability | 2 137 759 | 103 919 (95.64) | 4.86 |
| Learning disability | 34 257 | 4473 (4.12) | 13.06 |
| Down’s syndrome | 1040 | 260 (0.24) | 25.00 |
| Chemotherapy: | |||
| No chemotherapy in previous 12 months | 2 164 341 | 105 131 (96.76) | 4.86 |
| Chemotherapy group A | 3343 | 1100 (1.01) | 32.90 |
| Chemotherapy group B | 5032 | 2223 (2.05) | 44.18 |
| Chemotherapy group C | 340 | 198 (0.18) | 58.24 |
| Cancer and immunosuppression: | |||
| Blood cancer | 10 359 | 3084 (2.84) | 29.77 |
| Bone marrow or stem cell transplant in previous 6 months | 73 | 56 (0.05) | 76.71 |
| Respiratory cancer | 4549 | 1722 (1.58) | 37.85 |
| Radiotherapy in previous 6 months | 4346 | 1709 (1.57) | 39.32 |
| Solid organ transplant | 1147 | 283 (0.26) | 24.67 |
| GP prescribed immunosuppressant medication | 2814 | 455 (0.42) | 16.17 |
| Prescribed leukotriene or LABA | 45 905 | 9591 (8.83) | 20.89 |
| Prescribed regular prednisolone | 11 617 | 4518 (4.16) | 38.89 |
| Sickle cell disease | 717 | 117 (0.11) | 16.32 |
| Other comorbidities: | |||
| Type 1 diabetes | 10 337 | 861 (0.79) | 8.33 |
| Type 2 diabetes | 137 092 | 40 674 (37.44) | 29.67 |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 51 026 | 16 708 (15.38) | 32.74 |
| Asthma | 299 632 | 14 860 (13.68) | 4.96 |
| Rare pulmonary diseases | 11 748 | 2868 (2.64) | 24.41 |
| Pulmonary hypertension or pulmonary fibrosis | 1891 | 1061 (0.98) | 56.11 |
| Coronary heart disease | 77 035 | 29 476 (27.13) | 38.26 |
| Stroke | 47 513 | 20 384 (18.76) | 42.90 |
| Atrial fibrillation | 52 764 | 23 579 (21.70) | 44.69 |
| Congestive cardiac failure | 25 255 | 14 897 (13.71) | 58.99 |
| Venous thromboembolism | 38 962 | 10114 (9.31) | 25.96 |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 16 463 | 8005 (7.37) | 48.62 |
| Congenital heart disease | 11 344 | 1288 (1.19) | 11.35 |
| Dementia | 21 984 | 19 829 (18.25) | 90.20 |
| Parkinson’s disease | 5736 | 2847 (2.62) | 49.63 |
| Epilepsy | 29 031 | 3503 (3.22) | 12.07 |
| Rare neurological conditions | 6804 | 1092 (1.01) | 16.05 |
| Cerebral palsy | 2433 | 233 (0.21) | 9.58 |
| Severe mental illness | 246 668 | 17 428 (16.04) | 7.07 |
| Osteoporotic fracture | 87 595 | 15 933 (14.66) | 18.19 |
| Rheumatoid arthritis or SLE | 21 391 | 3251 (2.99) | 15.20 |
| Cirrhosis of liver | 4442 | 1054 (0.97) | 23.73 |
GP=general practitioner; LABA=long acting β agonist; SLE=systemic lupus erythematosus.
*
Values suppressed owing to small numbers <15.