Table 3. AIC of Turner’s growth model fitted to the Italian COVID-19 daily case reporting data of the first two weeks and the first three weeks from 2020-02-20, with a log-normal distribution for the positive cases.
| Dataset | Growth model | Restrictions | NFGMP | AIC | ΔAIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data of the first two weeks | Full Turner | - | 5 | 484.49 | 0 |
| Bertalanffy-Richards | ρ → 0 | 4 | 504.45 | 19.97 | |
| Hyper-logistic | ν = 1 | 4 | 483.03 | -1.46 | |
| Logistic | ν = 1 and ρ → 0 | 3 | 530.22 | 45.73 | |
| Hyper-Gompertz | ν → 0 and ων1+ρ is constant | 3 | 542.92 | 58.43 | |
| Gompertz | ν → 0, ρ → 0 and ων is constant | 2 | 499.50 | 15.02 | |
| Data of the first three weeks | Full Turner | - | 5 | 864.21 | 0 |
| Bertalanffy-Richards | ρ → 0 | 4 | 901.78 | 37.57 | |
| Hyper-logistic | ν = 1 | 4 | 863.58 | -0.63 | |
| Logistic | ν = 1 and ρ → 0 | 3 | 945.16 | 80.95 | |
| Hyper-Gompertz | ν → 0 and ων1+ρ is constant | 3 | 966.71 | 102.49 | |
| Gompertz | ν → 0, ρ → 0 and ων is constant | 2 | 896.52 | 32.30 |
Notes: - = not applicable; NFGMP = Number of free growth parameters; ΔAIC = difference between the AIC of a special growth model fit and the AIC of the full Turner’s growth model fit.