Table 4. Estimate, standard error (SE) and 95% confidence interval of peak statistics using the COVID-19 daily case reporting data from Italy (2020-02-20 to 2020-07-11).

Model	First two weeks data			First three weeks data
parameter	Estimate	SE	CI95%	Estimate	SE	CI95%
K	260124.1	930.9	[258305.9, 261955.1]	260122.6	633.1	[258884.8, 261366.3]
ω	0.0518	0.0066	[0.0404, 0.0665]	0.0661	0.0050	[0.0569, 0.0768]
ρ	0.3401	0.0183	[0.3061, .3779]	0.3075	0.0121	[0.2846, 0.3322]
τ	55.5287	4.3775	[47.5790, 64.8068]	47.7007	2.0405	[43.8645, 51.8724]
β	-4.7679	0.2379	[-5.2341, -4.3017]	-3.4678	0.1013	[-3.6663, -3.2693]
κ	0.1144	0.0196	[0.0761, 0.1528]	-0.0100	0.0058	[-0.0214, 0.0013]
σ	0.2081	0.0393	[0.1437, 0.3014]	0.2165	0.0334	[0.1600, 0.2930]

Notes: β and κ define the daily removal rate from detected cases as ${\alpha }_t=\frac{{\text{e}}^{\beta +\kappa t}}{1+{\text{e}}^{\beta +\kappa t}}$; σ is the log-normal distribution scale parameter (see pdf in Eq (27))