Figure 2.

The probability of persistence in the population-level polygenic model for different magnitudes of environmental change μ_θ. Each point represents the proportion of 1000 runs of the simulation in which the population persisted until the end of the simulation (N_t > N_c for all t). Lighter shades of grey indicate greater degrees of variation in the optimal phenotype (σ_θ). (a) shows results for uncorrelated (ρ = 0) fluctuations in the optimal phenotype and (b) shows results for autocorrelated (ρ = 0.9) fluctuations in the optimal phenotype. Other parameter values were μ_F = 1.2, N* = 10 000, N_c = 100, ω² = 10, p = 1, G = 0.5. (Estimated values have a binomial distribution, which using 1000 runs have a maximum standard deviation of 0.016 around the true value.)