Figure 3.
Effect of variation in fecundity on evolutionary rescue in the monogenic model. (a) Analytical calculation of the expected number of births to non-mutants before extinction for different degrees of variation in fecundity, relative to the expected number of births with no variation. See supplementary material for derivation. (b) Using a branching process, analytic predictions of the probability of persistence of the lineage of an adult mutant with given geometric mean fitness for different degrees of variation in fecundity, averaged over 10 000 fecundity time series for each parameter set. (See supplementary material for derivation and details.) (c) Probability of population persistence from simulations with 1 000 000 realizations for each parameter set (at intervals of 0.01 on the abscissa). Initial population size was 100, the geometric mean Ft = 4, V = 0.2, v = 0.5. In all panels, solid lines show results of uncorrelated fluctuations and dashed lines show autocorrelated fluctuations with ρ = 0.5.