Table 1.

Results of the regression analysis predicting the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day.^a,b

Statistic	All regions		Plateaued		Not plateaued
Total	119		51		68
States within the United States	41		15		26
Other countries	78		36		42
	Model A	Model B	Model A	Model B	Model A	Model B
F	171.9	77.5	132.1	55.1	79.4	42.6
Adjusted R2	0.59	0.72	0.72	0.81	0.54	0.71
Constant	10.1 (0.56)	15.1 (1.65)	11.8 (0.78)	19.3 (2.15)	9.6 (0.76)	15.2 (2.56)
Log (cumulative case volume per million on the day before mandated social distancing)	0.66** (0.05)	0.66** (0.05)	0.85** (0.07)	0.85** (0.07)	0.59** (0.07)	0.61** (0.09)
Log (population of the region)		−0.06 (0.07)		−0.08 (0.08)		−0.12 (0.11)
Day of mandated social distancing (from January 22, 2020)		−0.09** (0.02)		−0.1** (0.02)		−0.08** (0.02)
Percentage of the urban population in the region		0.02* (0.006)		0.001* (0.008)		0.02* (0.009)

COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019.

*P < 0.01, **P < 0.001.

^aStandard errors are reported in parentheses.

^bModel A = unadjusted; model B = adjusted for the day mandated social distancing started in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic (calculated as the number of days since January 22, 2020), for log-transformed population of geographic region and for proportion of persons living in urban areas.