Table 3.
Results of the regression analysis predicting the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day—other countries.a,b
| Statistic |
All regions |
Plateaued |
Not-plateaued |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total |
n=78 |
n=36 |
n=42 |
|||
| Model A | Model B | Model A | Model B | Model A | Model B | |
| F | 87.6 | 42.9 | 129.5 | 58.3 | 23.5 | 14.3 |
| Adjusted R2 | 0.53 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 0.87 | 0.35 | 0.57 |
| Constant | 9.6 (0.8) | 12.8 (2.05) | 12.1 (0.86) | 18.4 (2.16) | 8.3 (1.32) | 12.3 (3.68) |
| Log (cumulative case volume per million on the day before mandated social distancing) | 0.63∗∗ (0.07) | 0.6∗∗ (0.06) | 0.88∗∗ (0.08) | 0.83∗∗ (0.07) | 0.51∗∗ (0.1) | 0.55∗∗ (0.12) |
| Log (population of the region) | 0.02 (0.09) | −0.06 (0.08) | −0.02 (0.15) | |||
| Day of mandated social distancing (from January 22, 2020) | −0.09∗∗ (0.02) | −0.1∗∗ (0.02) | −0.08∗∗ (0.03) | |||
| Percentage of the urban population in region | 0.02∗ (0.008) | 0∗ (0.009) | 0.025∗ (0.011) | |||
COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019.
∗P < 0.05. ∗P < 0.01. ∗∗∗P < 0.001.
a
Standard errors are reported in parentheses.
b
Model A = unadjusted; model B = adjusted for the day mandated social distancing started in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic (calculated as the number of days since 22 January, 2020), for log-transformed population of geographic region and for proportion of persons living in urban areas.