Table 1.
Key Model Inputs and Parameters
| Baseline Characteristics of Eligible Population from HSE17 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Characteristic | Number | Percentage | |
| Male | 1042 | 44.7% | |
| Nonwhite | 249 | 10.7% | |
| Current smoker | 446 | 19.1% | |
| Past smoker | 684 | 29.4% | |
| Hypertension | 615 | 26.4% | |
| Mean | SD | Median | |
| Age (years) | 57.1 | 17.6 | 59 |
| BMI (kg/m2) | 28.5 | 5.4 | 28 |
| Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg) | 129.9 | 17.7 | 130 |
| Total cholesterol (mmol/L) | 5.2 | 1.1 | 5.2 |
| HDL cholesterol (mmol/L) | 1.5 | 0.47 | 1.5 |
| HbA1c (%) | 6.2 | 0.15 | 6.2 |
| Mean Effectiveness Evidence from PHE Evidence Review18 | |||
| Mean | SE | Source | |
| BMI (kg/m2) | −1.47 | 0.156 | (18) |
| HbA1c (%) | −0.20 | 0.043 | (18) |
| Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg) | −6.57 | 0.923 | (18) |
| Total cholesterol (mmol/L) | −0.28 | 0.028 | (18) |
| Intervention cost | £270 | (11) | |
| Duration of effect | 5 years | (11) | |
| Key Dementia Incidence Parameters | |||
| THIN (60–80 years) hazard ratio BMI | 0.940 | 0.0038 | (2) |
| THIN (60–80 years) hazard ratio BMI2 | 1.003 | 0.0003 | (2) |
| THIN (60–80 years) hazard ratio antihypertensives | 0.876 | 0.0296 | (2) |
| THIN (60–80 years) hazard ratio stroke | 1.781 | 0.0394 | (2) |
| THIN (60–80 years) hazard ratio diabetes | 1.332 | 0.0417 | (2) |
| CAIDE odds ratio obese | 2.296 | 0.3034 | (4) |
| CAIDE odds ratio hypertension | 2.206 | 0.3238 | (4) |
| CAIDE odds ratio hyperlipidemia | 1.879 | 0.3161 | (4) |
| Dementia Progression Annual Rate of MMSE Change | |||
| Intercept | −5.4663 | 0.9836 | (21) |
| PM1 [min(PrevMMSE, 9)] | −0.4299 | 0.0597 | (21) |
| PM2 [max[0, min(PrevMMSE, –9, 9)]] | −0.0042 | 0.0410 | (21) |
| PM3 [max[0, min(PrevMMSE, –18, 12)]] | 0.1415 | 0.0487 | (21) |
| Age at baseline | 0.0747 | 0.0127 | (21) |
| Previous rate of MMSE change | −0.0791 | 0.0317 | (21) |
| Dementia Mortality Parameters | |||
| Hazard ratio dementia mortality 60–85 years | 4.54 | 0.1276 | (26) |
| Hazard ratio dementia mortality 75+ years | 2.77 | 0.0784 | (26) |
| Dementia Costs | |||
| Health care cost mild dementia (MMSE 21–26) | £3103 | Assumed 10% | (23) |
| Health care cost moderate dementia (MMSE 10–20) | £8293 | Assumed 10% | (23) |
| Health care cost severe dementia (MMSE 0–9) | £9841 | Assumed 10% | (23) |
| Social care cost mild dementia (MMSE 21–26) | £5674 | Assumed 10% | (23) |
| Social care cost moderate dementia (MMSE 10–20) | £22703 | Assumed 10% | (23) |
| Social care cost severe dementia (MMSE 0–9) | £23466 | Assumed 10% | (23) |
| Dementia Utilities | |||
| Utility decrement MMSE 21–25 | 0.93 | Assumed 10% | (24) |
| Utility decrement MMSE 15–20 | 0.725 | Assumed 10% | (24) |
| Utility decrement MMSE 10–14 | 0.710 | Assumed 10% | (24) |
| Utility decrement MMSE 0–9 | 0.478 | Assumed 10% | (24) |
BMI, body mass index; CAIDE, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; HSE, Health Survey for England; MMSE, Mini Mental State Examination; PHE, Public Health England; PM, Previous MMSE; THIN, The Health Improvement Network.