Table 12.
Expected deadline for some countries in the first and second rebounds
| Country | First confirmed case | Estimation without forecasting | Estimation with Forecasting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak point | Start date 95% | End date 99% | Start value | End value | Peak point | Start date 95% | End date 99% | Start value | End value | ||
| The first rebound | |||||||||||
| USA | 22-Jan-2020 | 06-May-2020 | 06-Jul-2020 | 06-Aug-2020 | 402 | 11 | 30-May-2020 | 23-Aug-2020 | 01-Oct-2020 | 13747 | 11 |
| Spain | 01-Feb-2020 | 06-May-2020 | 21-Jun-2020 | 18-Jul-2020 | 2277 | 2 | 09-Jun-2020 | 07-Aug-2020 | 12-Sep-2020 | 49515 | 2 |
| Italy | 31-Jan-2020 | 06-May-2020 | 22-Jun-2020 | 20-Jul-2020 | 12462 | 3 | 08-Jun-2020 | 09-Aug-2020 | 14-Sep-2020 | 69176 | 3 |
| France | 24-Jan-2020 | 06-May-2020 | 03-Jul-2020 | 02-Aug-2020 | 1136 | 6 | 01-Jun-2020 | 20-Aug-2020 | 27-Sep-2020 | 12758 | 11 |
| United Kingdom | 31-Jan-2020 | 06-May-2020 | 22-Jun-2020 | 20-Jul-2020 | 459 | 9 | 08-Jun-2020 | 09-Aug-2020 | 14-Sep-2020 | 8164 | 9 |
| Germany | 27-Jan-2020 | 06-May-2020 | 29-Jun-2020 | 28-Jul-2020 | 1176 | 14 | 04-Jun-2020 | 15-Aug-2020 | 22-Sep-2020 | 24873 | 16 |
| Russia | 31-Jan-2020 | 06-May-2020 | 22-Jun-2020 | 20-Jul-2020 | 28 | 2 | 08-Jun-2020 | 09-Aug-2020 | 14-Sep-2020 | 495 | 2 |
| The second rebound | |||||||||||
| US | 22-Jan-2020 | 12-Aug-2020 | 08-Dec-2020 | 05-Feb-2020 | 701996 | 13 | 12-Sep-2020 | 24-Jan-2021 | 02-Apr-2021 | 1072667 | 15 |
| Brazil | 26-Feb-2020 | 12-Aug-2020 | 14-Oct-2020 | 01-Dec-2020 | 135773 | 793 | 12-Sep-2020 | 30-Nov-2020 | 26-Jan-2021 | 291579 | 2247 |
| India | 30-Jan-2020 | 12-Aug-2020 | 25-Nov-2020 | 21-Jan-2021 | 21370 | 3 | 12-Sep-2020 | 12-Jan-2021 | 18-Mar-2021 | 46437 | 3 |
| Spain | 01-Feb-2020 | 12-Aug-2020 | 22-Nov-2020 | 17-Jan-2021 | 213024 | 15 | 12-Sep-2020 | 09-Jan-2021 | 14-Mar-2021 | 219329 | 120 |
| Italy | 31-Jan-2020 | 12-Aug-2020 | 24-Nov-2020 | 19-Jan-2021 | 187327 | 453 | 12-Sep-2020 | 10-Jan-2021 | 16-Mar-2021 | 213013 | 1694 |
| France | 24-Jan-2020 | 12-Aug-2020 | 05-Dec-2020 | 01-Feb-2021 | 148086 | 12 | 12-Sep-2020 | 21-Jan-2021 | 29-Mar-2021 | 167305 | 12 |
| United Kingdom | 31-Jan-2020 | 12-Aug-2020 | 24-Nov-2020 | 19-Jan-2021 | 141540 | 37 | 12-Sep-2020 | 10-Jan-2021 | 16-Mar-2021 | 196780 | 94 |
| Germany | 27-Jan-2020 | 12-Aug-2020 | 30-Nov-2020 | 26-Jan-2021 | 147065 | 16 | 12-Sep-2020 | 16-Jan-2021 | 23-Mar-2021 | 165664 | 46 |
| Russia | 31-Jan-2020 | 12-Aug-2020 | 24-Nov-2020 | 19-Jan-2021 | 57999 | 2 | 12-Sep-2020 | 10-Jan-2021 | 16-Mar-2021 | 155370 | 2 |