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. 2020 Oct 22;5(10):e002972. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002972

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Discovery curve model for level 2 data and MCMC output. The yellow points represent the observed data, the red line is the best fitting model and the black-lines represent the uncertainty in the model estimates. Underneath the model are a series of histograms which represent the posterior distributions of parameter estimates. The chain output can be seen at the bottom of the figure and represent the range of parameter values tested and the number of iterations. MCMC, Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo.