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Skyline and renewal model under and overfitting. Small 
leads to smooth but biased estimates characteristic of underfitting ((i) and (iii) in (a) and (b)). Large 
results in noisy estimates that respond well to changes. This is symptomatic of overfitting ((ii) and (iv) in (a) and (b)). The MLEs (
or 
) are in blue and the true 
or 
in black. Panel (a) shows cyclic and bottleneck skyline models at 
and (b) focuses on sinusoidal and sigmoidal renewal models at 
.
