Table 2.

Excess TB incidence and deaths between 2020 and 2025 as a result of the different scenarios for COVID-related lockdowns.

Country	Excess cases between 2020 and 2025		Excess deaths between 2020 and 2025
	(% increase) [95% CrI]		(% increase) [95% CrI]
	2-month suspension + 2-month restoration	3-month suspension + 10-month restoration	2-month suspension + 2-month restoration	3-month suspension + -month restoration
India	182,000 [159,000–211,000]	1190,000 [1060,000–1330,000]	83,600 [77,500–90,600]	361,000 [333,000–394,000]
	(1.43% [1.30–1.65%])	(9.25% [8.53–10.40%])	(3.65% [3.48–3.95%])	(15.70% [15–16.80%])
Kenya	489 [−2660–5720]	24,700 [16,100–44,700]	2460 [1590–3840]	12,500 [8790–17,800]
	(0.0076% [−0.35–0.81%])	(3.36% [2.28–6.11%])	(1.30% [0.86–2.30%])	(6.58% [5.30–10.0%])
Ukraine	835 [−460–1520]	4350 [826–6540]	332 [153–570]	1340 [815–1980]
	(0.60% [−0.30–1.03%])	(2.96%[0.52–4.47%])	(1.15% [0.55–1.73%])	(4.64% [2.84–6.27%])

Abreviations: CrI-credible interval. All estimates are over the period from the beginning (1 Jan) of 2020 to the beginning of 2025. Percentages show increases in cases and deaths relative to a baseline of no disruption (blue lines in Figs. 1,2).