Table 1.

Case study 1 evaluation of the impact of closure of a venue following review on selected outcomes, and results of temporal and spatial falsification tests for observed effects.

Evaluation of the 12‐month impact of the closure of the venue
Outcome	12‐month average impact	95% CrI	Posterior tail‐area probability
Anti‐social behavioura	+8%	−63%, +49%	0.36
Crime (all offences) 1	+4%	−69%, +77%	0.45
Ambulance call‐outsb	−9%	−36%, +20%	0.22
Emergency Admission to hospital for alcoholb	−19%	−155%, +113%	0.39
Post‐hoc evaluation of 4‐month impact
Outcome	4‐month average impact	95% credible interval	Posterior tail‐area probability
Anti‐social behaviour	−18%	−37%, −4%	0.01

Temporal falsification testsc
Antisocial behaviour	4‐month average impact	95% CrI	Posterior tail‐area probability
6 months earlier	−7%	−22%, +16%	0.15
6 month later	−9%	−46%, +17%	0.31

Spatial falsification testsd
Area 2	+11%	−44%, +69%	0.32
Area 3	−39%	−109%, +47%	0.10
Area 4	−20%	−158%, +77%	0.43

^aMonthly number of reported events;

^bquarterly number of events;

^cthe time‐point of the intervention was artificially moved forwards or backwards;

^deach control area was artificially assigned as the intervention area. CrI = credible interval.