TABLE 1.
Model parameters: values and rationale
| Parameter | Estimate | Parameter definition | Comment | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Λ | 143 day−1 (Alberta) | Birth rate | 52,334 births in Alberta (2018) | Vital statistics (59) |
| μ | 0.000016 day−1 (Alberta) | Natural mortality rate (population) |
25,990 deaths in Alberta (2018) | Vital statistics (59) |
| Population of Alberta: 4,428,247 (2020) | Vital statistics (59) | |||
| β | 0.18 | Contact no. | Based on R0 = 2.5 and δ = 0.071 days−1
(see Materials and Methods) |
Zhao et al. (52) |
| δ | 0.071 days−1 | Rate of recovery from infection | Duration of infection: 14 days to recovery or death | Verity et al. (58) |
| γ | 0 (permanent immunity) | Rate of waning immunity | Different assumptions about the rate of waning immunity (likely bounding the true rate) |
|
| 0.0027 days−1 (immunity lasting 1 yr) |
||||
| 0.033 days−1 (immunity lasting 1 mo) |
||||
| f | 0.0066 | Infection fatality rate | Overall rate, based in epidemic in China, accounts for marked differences in mortality in different age groups |
Verity et al. (58) |
| θ | 0 (complete isolation) to 1 (complete mixing) |
Social distancing index | Index of reduction in contacts with public health control measures (see Materials and Methods) |
|