Table 2. Summary of estimates of mean evolutionary rate and most recent common ancestor of COVID-19* .
| Mean evolutionary rate (95% CI) | MRCA (95% CI) | No. genomes analyzed | Clock model† | Growth model | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA |
2019 Nov 29
(Nov 8–Dec 16) |
23 |
Strict |
Constant |
Rambaut, unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/phylogenetic-analysis-of-23-ncov-2019-genomes-2020-01-23/335 |
| 1.23 × 10−3 (0.56 × 10−3 to 1.98 × 10−3) |
2019 Nov 21 (Oct 23–Dec 13) |
51 |
Strict |
Exponential |
Duchene et al., unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/temporal-signal-and-the-evolutionary-rate-of-2019-n-cov-using-47-genomes-collected-by-feb-01-2020/379 |
| 1.29 × 10−3 (0.535 × 10−4 to 2.15 × 10−3) |
2019 Nov 14 (Sep 28–Dec 13) |
51 |
UNCL |
Exponential |
Duchene et al., unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/temporal-signal-and-the-evolutionary-rate-of-2019-n-cov-using-47-genomes-collected-by-feb-01-2020/379 |
| 0.9 × 10−3 (0.5 × 10−3 to 1.4 × 10−3) |
2019 Dec 3 (Oct 30–Dec 17) |
51 |
Strict |
Exponential |
Bedford, unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/phylodynamic-estimation-of-incidence-and-prevalence-of-novel-coronavirus-ncov-infections-through-time/391 |
| 0.92 × 10−3 (0.33 × 10−3 to 1.46×10−3) |
2019 Nov 29 (Oct 28–Dec 20) |
75 |
Strict |
Exponential |
Rambaut, unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/phylodynamic-analysis-176-genomes-6-mar-2020/356. Accessed March 4, 2020 |
| 1.04 × 10−3 (0.71 × 10−3 to 1. 4 ×10−3) |
2019 Dec 3 (Nov 16–Dec 17) |
116 |
Strict |
Exponential |
Hill and Rambaut, unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/phylodynamic-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-update-2020-03-06/420 |
| 7.41×10−4 (4.91 × 10−4 to 1.02 × 10−3) | 2019 Nov 27 (Nov 7–Dec 11) | 128 | Strict | Birth–death model | Sciré et al., unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/update-2-evolutionary-epidemiological-analysis-of-128-genomes/423 |
*MRCA, most recent common ancestor; NA, not applicable; UNCL, uncorrelated. †The clock model is a technique that uses the mutation rate to estimate the time of emergence (48).