TABLE 2.
Program Cost, $ | Cases Averted | Costs Averted, $ | Net Cost, $ | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Baseline scenario | ||||
40 clinics, 1 y | 432,742 (389,227–480,300) | 1445 (157–2712) | 324,728 (35,089–626,536) | 108,015 (−194,894 to 403,751) |
Alternative scenarios | ||||
80 clinics, 1 y | 486,375 (442,261–538,457) | 2889 (313–5425) | 649,455 (70,178–1,253,071) | −163,080 (−761,200 to 422,553) |
40 clinics, 2 y | 479,983 (432,833–528,040) | 2889 (313–5425) | 649,455 (70,178–1,253,071) | −169,473 (−770,708 to 412,706) |
HIV included, 40 clinics, 1 y | 432,742 (389,227–480,300) | 1487 (162–2791) | 2,703,858 (314,388–10,209,134) | −2,271,116 (−9,780,644 to 132,523) |
50% run, 40 clinics, 2 y | 439,118 (394,429–485,810) | 1445 (157–2712) | 324,728 (35,089–626,536) | 114,391 (−189,385 to 408,752) |
13% effect on men only, 40 clinics, 1 y | 432,742 (389,227–480,300) | 1287 (400–2171) | 190,784 (57,258–341,585) | 241,958 (−86,177 to 386,960) |
Costs and outcomes in each scenario are compared with having no intervention (usual care). The means for each output were calculated using the base estimates from Table 1. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals, representing the lower and upper 2.5 percentiles of the simulated data, are in parentheses. Negative net costs indicate that the scenario is cost saving. A 50% run indicates that the intervention was only operating 50% of the time over the intervention period. Results in the last row used a 13% effect size applied only to men and assumed no female effect, whereas results in the other rows applied the 9% effect size to all patients.