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. 2020 Oct 27;11:5177. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — Box whiskers plot of global mean temperature (ΔGMT) versus Arctic summer sea ice area with error boxes (error bars) representing the interquartile range (full spread) of the ensemble at the according GMT over the CLIMBER-2 ensemble runs. The additional warming when the Arctic summer sea ice disappears is represented by a second y-axis computed via a least-square fit from the corresponding summer sea ice area. The relationship between summer sea ice area and additional warming is slightly nonlinear. This means that a doubling of the ice area does not quite translate into a doubling of the additional warming. The x-axis shows ΔGMT above pre-industrial computed via a GMT-CO₂ concentration least-square fit. The shaded area shows the mean Arctic sea ice area as observed by NERSC (Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center) from 1979 to 2006, where the uncertainty indicates one standard deviation: 6.0 ± 0.5 × 10⁶ km².