Table 2.

Risk of mild cognitive impairment and dementia across the different trajectories of subjective cognitive decline (n = 5661)

SCD trajectory	No. of MCI and dementia / Total (%)	Model 1b		Model 2c		Model 3 (final)d		Survival (25th centile) in years (95% CI)a
		HR (95% CI)	p value	HR (95% CI)	p value	HR (95% CI)	p value
No SCD	418/3914 (10.7)	1.0 (Ref)	Ref	1.0 (Ref)	Ref	1.0 (Ref)	Ref	8.0 (7.5–8.5)
Intermittent SCD	164/1022 (16.0)	1.5 (1.3–1.8)	< 0.001	1.5 (1.2–1.8)	< 0.001	1.4 (1.1–1.7)	0.001	5.8 (5.3–6.4)
Persistent SCD	146/725 (20.1)	2.5 (2.0–3.0)	< 0.001	2.4 (2.0–2.9)	< 0.001	2.2 (1.8–2.7)	< 0.001	4.7 (3.7–5.8)

SCD subjective cognitive decline, No number, MCI mild cognitive impairment, CI confidence interval, HR hazard ratio, Ref reference group

^aThe time needed for a quarter of the participants to develop MCI or dementia. The 95% CI was computed with 1000 bootstrap sampling

^bCox regression included the SCD trajectories, as well as adjusted for covariates of age, sex, and ethnicity

^cCovariate adjustment as in model 1, with additional adjustment for years of education, APOE e4 status, current smoking, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and Mini-Mental State Examination score

^dCovariate adjustment as in model 2, with additional adjustment for total score on Geriatric Depression Scale and presence of anxiety symptoms