Table 1.
Projected burden of pancreatitis, pancreatic cancer, and their metabolic sequelae
| Incidence per 100,000 (95% confidence interval) | Years of life lost in thousands (95% confidence interval) | |||||||
| Year 2020 | Year 2030 | Year 2040 | Year 2050 | Year 2020 | Year 2030 | Year 2040 | Year 2050 | |
| Pancreatitis | 60.8 (58.2–63.4) | 81.8 (77.9–85.6) | 102.7 (97.3–108.1) | 123.7 (116.7–130.7) | 6.3 (6.0–6.7) | 9.1 (8.5–9.7) | 11.9 (11.1–12.7) | 14.7 (13.6–15.8) |
| Acute pancreatitis | 56.9 (53.2–60.6) | 76.3 (70.9–81.8) | 95.8 (88.2–103.4) | 115.3 (105.4–125.1) | 7.1 (6.6–7.7) | 10.3 (9.4–11.1) | 13.4 (12.1–14.6) | 16.5 (14.9–18.2) |
| Chronic pancreatitis | 6.9 (5.9–8.0) | 7.5 (5.9–9.1) | 8.0 (5.8–10.3) | 8.6 (5.6–11.5) | 2.1 (1.4–2.9) | 2.8 (1.7–4.0) | 3.5 (1.9–5.2) | 4.2 (2.1–6.4) |
| Pancreatic cancer | 13.3 (11.3–15.4) | 15.1 (12.1–18.1) | 16.8 (12.6–21) | 18.6 (13.1–24.1) | 7.6 (6.6–8.5) | 9.8 (8.2–11.3) | 12.0 (9.8–14.2) | 14.2 (11.3–17.1) |
| DEP | 6.9 (4.4–9.4) | 9.9 (6.0–13.7) | 12.8 (7.3–18.4) | 15.8 (8.5–23.1) | 1.2 (0.9–1.5) | 1.8 (1.4–2.3) | 2.5 (1.8–3.1) | 3.1 (2.2–4) |
| PPDM | 6.1 (3.8–8.5) | 9.1 (5.4–12.8) | 12.0 (6.8–17.3) | 15.0 (8.0–21.9) | 0.8 (0.6–1.0) | 1.3 (0.9–1.6) | 1.8 (1.3–2.3) | 2.3 (1.6–2.9) |
| PPDM-A | 5.2 (3.4–7.0) | 8.0 (5.2–10.8) | 10.8 (6.8–14.8) | 13.6 (8.4–18.9) | 0.6 (0.4–0.7) | 1.0 (0.7–1.2) | 1.4 (1.0–1.7) | 1.8 (1.3–2.3) |
| PPDM-C | 0.9 (0.2–1.5) | 1.0 (0.0–2.1) | 1.2 (−0.3–2.6) | 1.3 (−0.6–3.2) | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) | 0.3 (0.1–0.5) | 0.4 (0.1–0.7) | 0.5 (0.1–0.9) |
| PCRD | 0.9 (0.5–1.4) | 1.0 (0.3–1.7) | 1.1 (0.1–2.1) | 1.2 (−0.1–2.5) | 0.5 (0.2–0.7) | 0.6 (0.2–1.1) | 0.8 (0.1–1.4) | 0.9 (0.1–1.8) |
| EPD | 3.4 (2.8–4.0) | 4.7 (3.8–5.6) | 6.1 (4.8–7.4) | 7.4 (5.8–9.1) | 0.9 (0.7–1.1) | 1.4 (1.1–1.7) | 1.9 (1.4–2.4) | 2.4 (1.8–3.1) |
| EPD after pancreatitis | 2.2 (1.7–2.6) | 2.8 (2.1–3.5) | 3.5 (2.4–4.5) | 4.1 (2.8–5.5) | 0.4 (0.3–0.6) | 0.7 (0.4–1) | 0.9 (0.5–1.4) | 1.2 (0.5–1.8) |
| EPD after pancreatic cancer | 1.3 (0.9–1.7) | 2.0 (1.4–2.6) | 2.7 (1.9–3.6) | 3.4 (2.3–4.5) | 0.6 (0.4–0.8) | 0.9 (0.5–1.3) | 1.3 (0.7–1.8) | 1.6 (0.8–2.3) |
DEP, diabetes of the exocrine pancreas; EPD, exocrine pancreatic dysfunction; PCRD, pancreatic cancer-related diabetes; PPDM, postpancreatitis diabetes mellitus; PPDM-A, postacute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus; PPDMC, post-chronic pancreatitis diabetes mellitus.